The 39-year-old lawmaker represents New York’s 17th congressional district, a swing seat in one of the most solidly Democratic states in America. To win his seat, Lawler styled himself a moderate pragmatist who could support Trump even as he represented a constituency that voted against the US President in the 2024 election. “The Republican party and you are enabling him (Trump). You’re all cowards and spineless,” roared one voter in New York to loud cheers at a town hall in April. The subject of his frustration: America’s ongoing war with Iran. The target: Republican Congressman Mike Lawler. But as Trump’s unpopularity grows – due in large part to America’s war with Iran – his position is in jeopardy. Democrats have made defeating Lawler, whom they term one of the most vulnerable incumbent lawmakers in the country, a key priority as America approached crucial midterm elections in November.
With less than 100 days left before voters head to the polls in America’s crucial midterm elections, President Donald Trump’s war with Iran and its after effects have dominated the campaign as few other issues have. For the incumbent Republican party – which is fighting to hold on to its majorities in the US House of Representatives and Senate – the war represents the greatest threat to their tenuous grip on power. For the opposition Democrats, it’s an opportunity to restore their embattled party’s fortunes and effectively check Trump’s authority. It’ll be OK. And I’ve been the voice that’s been saying, ‘You people are living in a cave if you don’t see that the folks out there, the Toby and Ediths out there, are hurting,’” Republican Congressman Jim Justice from West Virginia was quoted as saying to reporters.
“We’ve gone through months that everybody sat back and said, ‘Oh, it’ll be OK. Even Speaker Mike Johnson – the party’s senior most lawmaker – acknowledged that the Iran war that the war has “drug on” and is the cause of the higher energy prices.
By most estimates, the war in Iran is among the most unpopular conflicts waged by an American President. The latter is particularly significant. Few issues in US politics unite voters and parties more than a desire to see energy prices stay low. Failing on this count often carries sharp political consequences for the party in charge. Sure enough, that dynamic is playing out rather worryingly for Donald Trump. Worse, polls by media outlet Politico find that solid majorities of voters – even those who identify themselves as adherents of Trump’s hardline Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement – blame the Iran war for rising energy prices. Members of Trump’s Republican party tell HT that dissatisfaction with the Iran war is evident when they speak with voters on the ground. “There’s definitely discomfort among Republicans generally about involvement in the war. The energy prices are definitely top of mind for everyone and it’s easy to point to and link to the war. Is that going to be enough for voters to not come out to vote? For now, their strategy has been to appeal to the need to support the President on national security issues like Iran even as they promise other ways to address America’s affordability crisis. Prominent conservative influencers like Tucker Carlson, who played a key role in mobilising Trump’s faithful supporters to back the President, have now fallen out with the administration over the Iran war. Many see the war as a betrayal of Trump’s promise on the campaign trail to avoid foreign entanglements even as they criticise the President going to war alongside Israel. Many on the hard right of Trump’s coalition have grown deeply critical of Israel in recent years for adopting what they believe is an overly aggressive military strategy that destabilizes the Middle East and forces Washington to commit more blood, sweat and treasure to the region. “It is starting to feel like a wave is starting to build. We’ll have better data sets in September, but it does feel like on the ground when I’m talking to voters, the voters are very angry. They’re disappointed and angry at the president. That’s reflected in the national polls of his disapproval. he anticipates many may simply not show up to vote While the veteran lawmaker doesn’t expect strong Trump supporters to switch to voting for his party.
Veteran pollster Nate Silver estimated last week that roughly 60% of US voters oppose the conflict with Tehran as exhaustion with foreign wars – which President Trump pledged to avoid in his 2024 re-election bid – and dismay at rising energy prices sets in. A 2016 study found that a mere $0.10 in the price of gasoline leads to a 0.6% drop in the President’s approval rating. Energy prices in the United States have risen by roughly 30% since the Iran war began in February even as Trump’s approval rating has plunged to just 33% – among the lowest seen by a US President in recent decades. For Trump, the war risks fracturing the coalition that narrowly elected him to the White House in 2024. And if that continues to build, and the war certainly is not helping, you could see a wave election coming up,” says Democratic Congressman Ami Bera, who has served in the House since 2013 and is running for re-election from California’s 3rd congressional district. Bera remains confident that the Democrats will win the House with a roughly 40% chance that the party will flip the Senate.
We’re not totally sure yet,” says one person aware of the party’s thinking.
