A peak is likely in December, with weather patterns to be disrupted globally, including higher than normal temperatures and weaker rainfall in south and southeast Asia, including India.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in its latest seasonal climate outlook has said the current El Nino event could be “unprecedented in strength” and may rise to 3.8°C above average between November 2026 to January 2027 period.
Overall, increased heat is likely across large parts of the world. “The southern parts of South Asia – specifically southern India, Sri Lanka, and Maldives – receive significant amounts of rainfall during the October to December season, which is critical for agricultural operations. This seasonal rain is likely to suffer ahead. “This is literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades. WMO’s forecast for east Africa shows wetter-than-normal conditions, with increasing concerns about heavy rainfall and flooding, while southern Africa should suffer with drier conditions. Across north and south America, increased rainfall is likely in the northwest US and southern parts of western South America.
WMO declares an El Niño when the sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific is 0.5°C and higher. On Wednesday, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) also released a new report, stating if current policies continue, global warming could reach 2.8°C above pre-industrial standards within this century and increase thereafter. It said urgent and stringent cuts are needed to greenhouse emissions to minimize the magnitude and duration of this overshoot and to return to 1.5°C by the end of the century. simultaneously, northeast monsoon rains began in southern India on the same day While the southwest monsoon departed India on October 15. El Niño will peak towards the end of 2026 but its impacts will be felt long after that,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said on Wednesday, sharing an update on El Niño, but adding it does not have to be a recipe for humanitarian disaster.
Northeastern parts, including Afghanistan, also receive a sizable proportion of annual precipitation during these months,” the outlook said. The outlook, shared late on Wednesday, said a very strong El Niño disrupts normal temperature and rainfall patterns and can bring severe drought to some regions, heavy rainfall and flooding to others.
Earlier reporting noted: Current El Nino event could be unprecedented in strength: WMO The prevailing El Nino conditions over the tropical Pacific could be unprecedented in strength, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Wednesday (October 21, 2026) in its new seasonal climate outlook. Earlier reporting noted: The WMO declares an El Nino when the sea surface temperature anomaly in this region is 0.5 degrees Celsius.
Earlier reporting noted: El Nino is one of the three phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — a climate phenomenon characterised by changes in sea temperatures along the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, accompanied by fluctuations in the atmosphere overhead.
