Jens Spahn, until recently the parliamentary leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), its sister party, is deficient in sharp political instincts. On July 15th Mr Spahn said on social media and in an interview with Bild, a tabloid, that he and his husband had had a baby boy via a surrogate in America. Unfortunately for him, that looked to voters like brazen hypocrisy. Surrogacy is illegal in Germany and Mr Spahn, a conservative former health minister, had argued that it should remain so. Three days later he resigned.
Event Context
The pair brokered a comprehensive reform package, a 34-point “programme for growth and employment”, finalised on July 1st. Its most important elements are reforming the ailing public-pension system and providing tax relief for low- and middle-income earners. The government needs to deliver such measures if it is to have any chance of heading off the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in state elections in eastern Germany in September. Without Mr Spahn’s dealmaking nous, the coalition could return to disarray.
Walk the plank
Mr Merz was slow to grasp the strength of the outcry over Mr Spahn’s announcement. In his annual Sommerinterview on zDF , a public broadcaster, the chancellor hinted that the public’s anger was so strong because of Mr Spahn’s divisive and scandal-prone personality.
Mr Spahn is one of Germany’s least popular politicians. In 2020 he got a loan for a villa from a bank where he had served on the supervisory board. During the pandemic he awarded a contract for overpriced face-masks to a firm employing his husband (the health ministry denies preferential treatment). Many dislike his MAGA connections: he is friendly with Richard Grenell, a former American ambassador, and Peter Thiel, a hard-right tech mogul.
Match Outlook
Mr Merz wants to move on quickly from the Spahn affair. On July 29th lawmakers from the CDU and CSU will interrupt their holiday to vote on Mr Spahn’s successor in Berlin. According to media reports, Thorsten Frei, the head of the federal chancellery, will be his replacement. “He is popular among parliamentarians though he is not as strategic as Spahn, who could bring them to heel,” says Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook of the Bertelsmann Foundation, a think-tank. Mr Frei’s likely successor is the health minister, Nina Warken. Moving her will require a cabinet reshuffle.
It is not clear whether a change of personnel would revive Mr Merz’s sagging popularity. He could try to reboot his government by replacing a few of the CDU or CSU ministers in his coalition government. Voters don’t much like Patrick Schnieder, the transport minister, or Katherina Reiche, the economy minister. Mr Schnieder is blamed for the notorious delays at Deutsche Bahn, the national railway service. Ms Reiche is unpopular because of her perceived closeness to the fossil-fuel industry and her inability to come up with an effective industrial policy.
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