The fallout has given Democrats renewed confidence that they could reclaim the Ohio governorship for the first time since 2006, with the race becoming increasingly competitive in its final days.
Trump won Ohio by approximately 11 percentage points in 2024, reflecting growing Republican support among rural and white voters. Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur who gained national recognition during his 2024 presidential campaign, is seeking to become Ohio’s next governor. His Democratic opponent, Acton , previously served as director of the Ohio Department of Health and became a prominent public figure during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Democrats have increasingly viewed the controversy as an opportunity to strengthen their position in a state that has traditionally leaned Republican in recent elections. Ohio, however, has emerged as an important battleground in this year’s midterm elections. Once considered a major swing state, it has shifted towards Republicans over the past two decades. The state supported former President Barack Obama in both of his presidential victories but subsequently backed Donald Trump in all three of his presidential campaigns.
Several major election forecasters have given Acton an advantage in the contest. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have both placed the race in the Democratic-leaning category, suggesting that she enters Election Day with a favourable position. Recent surveys have consistently placed Acton ahead of Ramaswamy, although the size of her lead varies between polling organisations. all four show Acton ahead in the final stretch of the campaign Although the surveys differ in their findings. Acton has also emerged as the favourite in political prediction markets, where traders place financial bets on the outcomes of elections and other major events. These platforms calculate probabilities based on the prices of contracts traded by participants. Their estimates can change as new polling information, campaign developments, fundraising figures and political events influence market sentiment. However, prediction market probabilities should not be treated as guaranteed election outcomes. They reflect traders’ expectations at a particular moment rather than definitive forecasts. With multiple polls showing Acton ahead and prediction markets favouring the Democrat, Republicans face a challenging final stretch in their effort to retain control of the governor’s office. A victory for Acton would mark a major breakthrough for Democrats in Ohio, potentially ending nearly two decades of Republican dominance in the state’s gubernatorial elections.
Acton held an average advantage of 4.7 percentage points over Ramaswamy as of Monday, according to RealClearPolitics. The latest polls also show a relatively consistent lead for the Democratic candidate: The New York Times/Siena University: Acton led Ramaswamy 49 percent to 43 percent. The survey questioned 717 likely voters between October 26 and November 1, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. InsiderAdvantage: Acton received 49 percent support, compared with Ramaswamy’s 46 percent. The poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters on October 29 and 30, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points. YouGov: Acton held a six-point advantage, leading 52 percent to 46 percent. The survey included 2,082 likely voters between October 26 and 29 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. Suffolk University: Acton led 48 percent to 44 percent in a survey of 500 likely voters conducted between October 21 and 26. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. As of Monday, Kalshi gave her an 82 percent probability of winning, while Polymarket placed her chances at 83 percent. Ohio voters will head to the polls on Tuesday, with voting scheduled to begin at 6:30 a.m. and conclude at 7:30 p.m.
