The story so far: On August 31, the Centre deferred the Census operations in Manipur amid demands to first conduct the State’s National Register of Citizens (NRC) exercise with 1951 as the base year. The message conveyed was that Manipur can ill-afford fresh tension amid the ongoing Kuki-Meitei and Kuki-Naga conflicts, with elections to the State’s 60-member Assembly less than a year away. The decision followed Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s meeting with Manipur Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla and Chief Minister Yumnam Khemchand Singh in New Delhi.
The Kuki community, led by the Kuki-Zo Council, supported the Census operation. The Meitei Pangals (Muslims), largely inhabiting the valley, joined the NRC-before-Census bandwagon, as did the Nagas, who dominate at least five of the State’s 10 hill districts. The Kukis also said updating the NRC before the Census was premature and biased, fearing that the community members might face unfair exclusion if 1951 was used as the base year.
Their leaders said an impartial headcount would dispel false claims about Kuki population growth and the perception that they were “illegal migrants”, and ensure a fair delimitation process based on verified population numbers. Claiming large-scale migration into Manipur’s hills from Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Mizoram since the 15th century, the CSOs said the total population in the hills jumped to 5,49,599 in 2011 from 25,384 in 1881, recording a growth rate of 2,165%, “which is more than half of each of the Meiteis and the original tribes”. They said protecting their ancestral land from “infiltrators” and keeping their socio-cultural environment intact became a “headache” for most original inhabitants, given the demographic scenario. The CSOs said those who fail to establish a link between people in the 1951 Census and those in the (demanded) NRC should be declared “non-citizens of Manipur” and duly detected and deported. The Nagas feel the NRC would facilitate the detection of “illegal migrants” from Myanmar, who they claim largely settled in ancestral Naga lands.
Assam’s updated NRC has been in limbo, with cases against it pending in the Supreme Court. However, the other communities intensified their pro-NRC protests. Shutdowns and boycotts of all the Central and State government offices followed. A citizens’ group, Campaign for Just and Fair Delimitation, threatened to intensify its protest. They claimed that the Inpuis, Kabuis, Liangmais, Maos, Marams, Meiteis, Poumais, Rongmeis, Tangkhuls, and Zemes were the original inhabitants. The Manipur government has consistently backed the NRC. Most of those who took refuge were Kuki-Chin, ethnically related to the Kukis of Manipur and the Mizos of Mizoram.
Leaders of 14 CSOs met with the Governor before travelling to New Delhi to meet with the Union Home Secretary, Registrar General of India, and the High-Level Committee on Demographic Change to explain why Manipur needed the NRC to find a permanent solution to the ethnic conflict that has scarred the State since May 3, 2023. The population of the Meiteis and the original tribes increased by 880% and 897%, respectively, during this period, they said. Its formal demand gained traction after the Manipur Legislative Assembly adopted a unanimous resolution on August 5, 2022, seeking the establishment of a State Population Commission and the implementation of the NRC. One of the triggers was the military coup in Myanmar in February 2021, following which several hundred people crossed over to Manipur through porous borders. Many in Manipur blame the illegal influx for the ongoing ethnic conflict, first between the Kukis and Mizos and then between the Kukis and Nagas, which has claimed almost 300 lives since May 2023 and displaced more than 62,000 people. the Nagas believe the scale could tip in favour of the Kukis in the hills While non-tribal Meiteis feel the Census could reduce their representation in the Assembly from the current 40 seats. The 20 Assembly seats in the hills are divided equally between the Kukis and the Nagas. The latter, however, say the hill areas should have had at least three more Assembly seats based on the 2011 population. Organisations such as the All Assam Students’ Union claim the NRC 2019 was manipulated to pass a majority of an estimated 41 lakh illegal immigrants as citizens. The Bharatiya Janata Party-led Assam government remains adamant that the NRC was erroneous, with at least 20% of the enlisted names in districts bordering Bangladesh requiring re-verification.
In a memorandum submitted to the Governor on July 1, the 14 CSOs said an NRC was necessary to identify “illegal migrants” who migrated to Manipur from Bangladesh, Burma (Myanmar), and Mizoram to “pose a threat” to the State’s “original inhabitants”. They said the population of Meitei Pangals, descendants of Muslims from present-day Bangladesh who migrated to the State since 1606 and settled by marrying Manipuri women, increased to 2,39,886 (Census 2011) from 4,881 in 1881 with an “unexpected” growth rate of 4,814% during the past 130 years. Meiteis and Nagas believe the Kuki population has jumped exponentially in the hill districts Although the State government or any other agency has not conducted any survey of “illegal immigrants”.
