Nearly half of the 262 districts the Centre identified as vulnerable to a weak monsoon continue to face rainfall deficiency, despite a sharp recovery in July and the first half of August, raising concerns over crops in areas with limited irrigation and high dependence on rain, an HT analysis of Agriculture Ministry and India Meteorological Department (IMD) data showed.
One district has no cumulative classification in IMD data. The Centre’s list, however, was not intended to predict which districts would receive deficient rainfall. It was based on factors including rainfall probability, irrigation coverage and cropped area to identify districts with greater underlying exposure to a weak monsoon. The finding comes as the overall monsoon picture has again begun to deteriorate after a strong recovery in July.
Of the 262 districts identified for focused monitoring ahead of the kharif season, 117 are currently deficient or large deficient, while 144 have received normal or better-than-normal rainfall. Under IMD norms, rainfall is classified as deficient when it is 20-59% below the long-term average and large deficient when the shortfall is 60-99%. Normal rainfall is between 19% below and 19% above the long-term average. As of August 19, all-India rainfall was 13% below the long-period average (LPA), down sharply from a 40% deficit at the end of June. The deficit narrowed to 13% by the end of July but has remained largely between 11% and 13% in August.
