The US Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday, July 29, with investors watching closely for clues on the central bank’s next move on inflation and monetary policy.
Event Context
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets US interest rates, began its two-day meeting on July 28. The committee will announce its policy decision after reviewing key economic indicators, including inflation trends, economic growth and labor market conditions.
The Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision at 2 pm ET on July 29.
For viewers in India, the announcement is scheduled for 11:30 pm IST on July 29.
Match Outlook
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to address the media after the decision. His press conference will begin at 12 am IST on July 30, according to the official schedule.
Investors can watch the announcement and the Fed chair’s remarks through the Federal Reserve’s official website and live video channels.
Markets widely expect the US central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting. The Fed has maintained a pause on rates throughout 2026 after a series of rate cuts in 2024 and 2025.
At its previous policy meeting, the FOMC kept the benchmark federal funds rate in the 3.5%-3.75% target range.
However, investors are looking beyond the immediate rate decision and focusing on signals from Warsh about whether the Fed could restart its rate-cutting cycle later this year.
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“We expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting while maintaining its wait-and-see approach,” Sawrikar said.
He added that Warsh is expected to reinforce the Fed’s focus on controlling inflation while stressing that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data. “If inflation proves more persistent than anticipated, the Fed is likely to keep the option of further policy tightening on the table.”
Recent US economic data has shown stronger-than-expected growth and a resilient labor market, easing earlier concerns about a sharp slowdown. However, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target.
Seema Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities, said the central bank is expected to hold rates steady as policymakers weigh persistent inflation risks against signs of slowing economic activity.
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She noted that while core inflation has eased and labor market conditions have gradually softened, higher energy prices amid geopolitical tensions have renewed concerns about inflationary pressures.
“While the broader consensus points to the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged, markets have raised the odds of an unexpected 25-basis-point rate hike,” Srivastava said, according to TradingView.
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According to TradingView, Nachiketa Sawrikar, Fund Manager at Artha Bharat Global Multiplier Fund, said the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious approach as it balances supporting employment with bringing inflation closer to its 2% target.
She added that investors may pay closer attention to the policy statement and Warsh’s press conference than the rate decision itself, looking for hints about the Fed’s future policy direction.
