Donald Trump put his reputation as a negotiator on the line with China last week. How it turns out will determine whether he is the deal maker he says he is or just another Westerner who thought he could best China only to find he’s been played.
Event Context
It’s confusing because U.S. sanctions on 39 other Hong Kong and mainland officials imposed by other laws remain unaffected. The latter list includes Hong Kong’s top man, Chief Executive John Lee.
Some see the relief as a kowtow to China because it isn’t clear Mr. Trump got anything in return. The subservient Hong Kong government described the move as a “positive shift” in U.S. policy.
Even for those of us who are skeptical about the efficacy of sanctions, it’s a huge concession to China. Because Hong Kong is a world trade and financial center, adding to the marginal costs of doing business is more keenly felt there than in larger but less competitive economies.
Count Mark Clifford a skeptic of the move. Mr. Clifford is a former business associate of imprisoned newsman Jimmy Lai and author of a Lai biography, “The Troublemaker.” Mr. Clifford runs the Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation—and he doesn’t like what he sees.
“The move represents a significant softening of the Trump administration stance toward China,” Mr. Clifford says. “Coming in the same week as the arrest of more Hong Kong booksellers, removing these sanctions is a slap in the face for the people in Hong Kong still clinging to their freedoms.”
He continues: “Unless the Chinese have made concessions we don’t know about, it is impossible to see how this retreat serves U.S. interests or those of the Hong Kong people.”
In fairness, Mr. Trump succeeded in pressing China to free a jailed Christian pastor, Ezra Jin, whose children are U.S. citizens. Mr. Trump has also met in the Oval Office with Mr. Lai’s son Sebastien, and his administration continues to make the case for releasing the 78-year-old Mr. Lai. Given the special loathing Mr. Xi and China’s Communist leadership have for Mr. Lai, it’s a big ask.
But in late 2024, little more than a week before the presidential election, when radio host Hugh Hewitt asked Mr. Trump if he would get Mr. Lai out of prison, he was unequivocal: “100% yes. I’ll get him out. He’ll be easy to get out.”
Clearly that’s proving more difficult than Mr. Trump anticipated. So the question now isn’t only what happens to Jimmy Lai if he remains in prison. It’s also about the consequences for Mr. Trump.
“Either Jimmy Lai dies in jail or he is freed, likely on humanitarian or medical grounds,” Mr. Clifford says. “President Trump has offered Xi an easy exit ramp. Let’s hope that Xi is farsighted enough to make the correct choice.”
Write to mcgurn@wsj.com.
Match Outlook
Jimmy Lai is the world’s most famous political prisoner. Even if the president gets a fantastic trade deal, there will be opposition if the price is leaving him behind.
Why all the fuss for a non-American? First of all, like Mr. Jin, Mr. Lai has an American daughter, Jade. More to the point, although Mr. Lai is British, there is no more ardent, brave and public champion of America.
Our families are close. Jimmy is my godson. My wife and I went into China three times to adopt. Each time the Lais were there for us, making their home our girls’ home. When I went to work at the Bush White House, Jimmy was thrilled—for my daughters, whom he viewed as incarnations of the American dream.
On the world stage, Jimmy sees the U.S. as a force for good. He liked Mr. Trump and wasn’t afraid to speak out for him. He too wants America to be great.
The American experiment in liberty fascinates Jimmy, and his papers and magazines reflected that. China noticed. At his trial, the main charge against him was “conspiracy to commit collusion with foreign forces”—implying he operated as an agent of the U.S.
In reality, he was an enterprising newspaperman whose passion for Hong Kong is a microcosm of his love for America. He saw both as places of opportunity that showed what ordinary men and women might accomplish if given the freedom to do so.
Detained since Dec. 31, 2020, Jimmy has put his faith in America—and Mr. Trump. Now we’re in the endgame. Its conclusion comes down to whether Mr. Trump makes good on a promise he said was “easy.”
