Though melodically a bit relentless, the pop song deserves a revival as a guide to the second-term statecraft of President Donald Trump.
“INEVER MEANT to start a war…I just closed my eyes and swung,” sings Miley Cyrus in “Wrecking Ball”, a break-up ballad that seemed to play on every American radio in 2013.
It is clear that traditional foreign-policy theories are a poor guide to Mr Trump. That offers both risks and opportunities to anyone running to be America’s next president. Going back to Richard Nixon and his successor Jimmy Carter, most presidents have (over-)corrected for the biggest flaws of the guy who came before. In reaction to Tricky Dick’s devious realpolitik, the Carter presidency offered hairshirt moralising. Before long, voters felt that America was disrespected and chose can-do Reaganite optimism. When Americans wearied of George H.W. Bush, a wise but stiff statesman, they elected feel-your-pain Bill Clinton. After shoot-from-the-hip George W. Bush, Americans fell for cool, cerebral Barack Obama, before souring on haughty brainiacs and betting the country on Mr Trump. It is quite plausible that this president will be hooted from office after wrecking America’s good name (though AI dominance could create riches and clout). Successors wishing to do the opposite will be spoiled for choice. For the foreign-policy pendulum to swing through a full arc, the 48th president could put the national interest ahead of personal profit. Alternatively his successor could avoid reckless wars and shun regime change. The next administration could work to rebuild alliances, pledging to help Europe confront Russia and friends in Asia deter China. All these options would break with some version of Trumpism. The range of options is especially wide for Democrats. Whether Mr Trump’s vice-president, J.D. Vance, clears the field or faces a contested primary, Republicans will be wary of angering the MAGA faithful by repudiating Mr Trump. Conversations with foreign-policy heavy-hitters in Washington describe two broad camps, one centrist and one on the progressive left. These agree that voters care most about domestic and economic issues: there is much talk of heeding the kitchen-table concerns of working families. Yet each camp knows, too, that the outside world has a habit of intruding. A loud group would bar from future service those Biden-era officials who worked on Israel policy, deeming them steeped in Gazan blood. A cross-party consensus exists to deny Israel uncritical support. Some on the left would pull America out of the Middle East and offer only cautious support for Ukraine.
Because Democrats are a self-indulgent bunch and—for a political party—surprisingly bad at politics, they are responding to this moment of opportunity with a navel-gazing argument.
It has broken the “pendulum theory”, a once-reliable tool for predicting American foreign policy.
This newspaper has noted Mr Trump’s wrecking-ball tendencies before, but in the two years before the next presidential election his yen for demolition has a specific impact.
