In Democrats’ quest to restrain Donald Trump over the past two years, no tool was more frequently deployed than the sternly worded letter. Democrats sent these missives regularly; the president and his associates ignored most of them. Such is the plight of the minority party in Congress, which lacks power to call hearings or issue subpoenas, much less pass laws.
The task now is to live up to the twin promises of the campaign: boosting the fortunes of ordinary Americans and checking the president. The risk is that their efforts fall short and create an opening for a Republican recovery. They are unlikely to advance major legislation. They may, however, manage to make modest deals with the president that appeal to his populist instincts, such as capping drug prices. Democratic leadership will likely try to satisfy the base by impeaching cabinet officials instead. Pete Hegseth, the unpopular secretary of war, will probably be first for, among other things, waging war in Iran without congressional authorisation and ordering extrajudicial killings of alleged drug traffickers. Robert F.
That will change when Democrats grab the gavel on January 3rd, having won a thumping majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, likely holding at least 250 seats in the lower chamber and no fewer than 54 in the upper. Their hope is that substantive victories will pave a path back to power in the White House in 2028. The main problem is that the Democrats’ win, though triumphant, still leaves them far short of the 290 seats in the House and 67 in the Senate that would have given them a veto-proof majority. Kennedy junior, the health secretary, may be next, having presided over the worst measles outbreak in 35 years.
Mr Jeffries’s incentive will be to maintain the majority in 2028, which means he will have to protect competitive seats held by moderates; targeting the president will not be a winning electoral message in their districts.
Achieving other big policy changes will be difficult. Democrats have long grumbled about spending money on a costly, ferocious deportation campaign rather than basic support programmes. However, Republicans have already moved to protect funding for immigration enforcement through the remainder of Mr Trump’s term. The president continues to try elaborate legal methods to sustain his agenda of tariffs, none of which require congressional approval. If Democrats can do little to curb inflation or raise incomes, they will have more success in their efforts to check the president. In the Senate, Democrats can block Mr Trump’s judicial appointments and cabinet nominees. Meanwhile, lower-court confirmations will definitely stop. Oversight will dominate the agenda. Democrats will move to issue subpoenas to officials and force testimony. Exposing the administration’s perceived self-dealing will be the biggest focus. Mr Trump has supplied them with ample material and voters have taken note. Topics may include how a manufacturing firm whose investors include Donald Trump junior, the president’s eldest son, secured a loan from the Pentagon, and whether Gulf states have sought leverage over Jared Kushner, Mr Trump’s son-in-law and foreign envoy, by investing billions in his private-equity fund. Democratic leaders also talk up plans for hearings on tariffs, Iran, the draconian immigration agenda and much else. Democrats will seek to telegraph that they are the party of clean government. Cue a raft of reform proposals. Indeed the marquee one—a ban on stock-trading by lawmakers—may well pass. The rest are meant as messaging. Jamie Raskin, the incoming chair of the House Judiciary Committee, wants to require pardon brokers to register under federal law, much like how lobbyists representing foreign governments already do. He also wants to force Mr Trump to disgorge the Qatari jet. Robert Garcia, who will chair the House Oversight Committee, wants to stop bosses of federal contractors from donating to political campaigns or parties.
That would matter most if one of the conservatives on the Supreme Court were to unexpectedly leave the bench before the 2028 election—two are in their late 70s. Then Senate Democrats would probably copy the tactic of Republicans who refused to consider Merrick Garland, Barack Obama’s nominee, in 2016.
Two-thirds of Americans say Mr Trump is using the presidency to enrich himself; in exit polls, nine in ten said government corruption was a major factor in their vote. He calls this closing the “Musk loophole”.
Republicans will ram through as many as possible in November and December, before the Democrats take over.
