Nearly 451,000 additional deaths, including 15,800 (± 1,600) more heat-related fatalities in India, are projected globally in the next six months due to the prevailing “Super El Niño,” compared to a normal year, according to a University of Chicago study released on Wednesday.
It suggested efforts like heat warnings, health outreach to vulnerable populations, cooling centers and hydration stations, worker protection, and expanded health system capacity. “This report allows decision-makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months. We need to mobilise resources now to design, deploy, and evaluate the preparation and planning tools that will save lives in the years ahead.”
“However, 20 years from now, once today’s extreme temperatures become the new normal, we do not want to be in a constant state of emergency.
University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab study said directing emergency response and resilience efforts to high-priority regions could potentially avoid tens of thousands of deaths. “The 451,000 deaths projected to occur during the first half of El Niño alone are about 65 times larger than the 6,800 people believed to be dead or missing from the recent Nepal flash flood,” the study said. Climate Impact Lab co-founder Michael Greenstone said they have long been able to predict the impacts of temperatures on crops, and now can predict their impact on the worst outcome – death. “The result is that we now can estimate that 451,000 people may die in the coming months due to El Niño,” he said. The study said the El Niño is also acting as a “postcard from our future,” bringing temperatures climate change is projected to deliver in 20 years. “In this way, it offers a glimpse at what lies ahead without new investments in adaptation,” the study said. Tamma Carleton, the Faculty Head of Research for the Climate Impact Lab who co-authored the report, said increasing emergency response and better targeting of efforts can still save many lives this year.
The assessment cited data and projected 451,000 additional deaths that would particularly impact the Global South, highlighting the need for climate mitigation, from September 2026 to February 2027. The study found global land temperatures will be 1.2°C above normal in the coming months due to the El Niño, which began in June and is expected to last through Northern Hemisphere spring.
