The Middle East enjoyed a respite from violence after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to pause their war in mid-June. Now, it looks like the calm before the storm.
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Meanwhile, Iran’s aggression is encouraging U.S. allies in the Gulf such as Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to act pre-emptively against Tehran, said Dana Stroul, deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East in the Biden administration and director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
“Military cooperation has been ascendant,” Stroul said.
Here are some of the key events in a month that broadened the Iran war:
July 1: In a strong indication the MOU was failing, Iran blocks movement of ships that ignore its directives on transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
July 7: A day after a British ship is attacked, the U.S. reimposes its naval blockade on Iran, revokes authorization for Tehran’s sale of oil and launches new airstrikes on the country. Iran shoots missiles toward Bahrain and Kuwait.
Team Analysis
Fresh theaters of war have sprung up across the Middle East since the beginning of July, when Iran returned to threatening ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Soon, President Trump declared the ceasefire over, and the U.S. resumed bombing Iran. Tehran retaliated against Arab allies of the U.S. in the Persian Gulf.
“The MOU didn’t actually resolve anything,” said Kenneth M. Pollack, vice president for policy at the Middle East Institute, a Washington think tank.
Instead, he said the memorandum of understanding actually produced a misunderstanding over the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. believing the agreement assured oil exports would flow unencumbered and Iran believing it now had control over the waterway.
Much of the regional violence that has since transpired reflects how Iran is trying to reset its relations with its neighbors and gain the upper hand, Pollack said. “We are focused on the U.S.-Iran negotiations,” he said, but Iran “is negotiating with those countries as much as they’re negotiating with us.”
July 8: President Trump declares the ceasefire deal with Iran is “over.”
July 9: Iranian ballistic missiles target U.S. forces at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base and Prince Hassan Air Base in Jordan.
July 12: Iranian missiles and drones rain down on Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Jordan, while a vessel is hit off Oman. U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iran feature remotely operated kamikaze-style attack drones and boats.
July 13: Yemen’s Houthis announce a blockade against Saudi crude oil exports through the Red Sea and launch missiles toward a Saudi airport. Mariners are killed when Iran hits oil tankers from the U.A.E.
July 15: Israel targets what it calls Hamas command centers in Gaza, sparking Iranian condemnation. In new U.S. strikes on Iran, bridges become targets.
July 17: Iranian missile strikes kill three American personnel at a base hosting U.S. troops in Jordan. Iran attacks Iraqi Kurdistan. Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declares Trump’s signature to the deal “worthless and invalid.”
July 21: Israel relinquishes control of some towns in Lebanon to the country’s government after U.S.-brokered talks, though early snags include an alleged shooting by Israeli troops near Lebanese forces.
July 22: Yemen’s Houthis target two Saudi-flagged tankers in the southern Red Sea.
July 24: Saudi Arabia launches airstrikes on Houthi military positions. Iran attacks the Kurdish city of Erbil in northern Iraq. In the West Bank, a shootout involving Israeli settlers leaves four Palestinians and two Israeli soldiers dead. Trump says the U.S. is speaking with Iran.
July 25: After two weeks of bombing Iran, Trump halts major attacks to give a chance for talks to proceed amid concerns about weapons stockpiles.
July 27: Drones from Iraq-based, Iran-backed militia strike Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil processing plant and energy infrastructure.
July 28: The U.S. military says it intercepted a surprise Iranian attack on U.S. forces in Jordan. Iran rejects an Omani plan to govern the Strait of Hormuz. And in a fresh show of force, Saudi Arabia joins the U.S. with strikes on the Iran-backed militia in eastern Iraq.
July 29: U.S. Central Command says it launched strikes against Iran in what it called a “powerful response” to the surprise attack on U.S. forces in Jordan the previous day.
Write to James T. Areddy at [email protected], Omar Abdel-Baqui at [email protected] and Max Rust at [email protected]
Match Outlook
But the shooting didn’t stop there. The unraveling of the truce sparked fresh fissures regionwide, involving unexpected places and combatants.
