The Pakistan government has slightly revised the gross domestic product (GDP) growth down to 3.65% for the outgoing financial year (FY26), attributing the adjustment to a mild slowdown in the industrial and services sectors, according to a media report on Tuesday (October 20, 2026).
The committee approved incorporating revised import data into the national accounts estimates from FY21 to FY25, quarterly GDP growth rates for the first, second, third (all revised) and fourth quarters of FY26, and updated annual growth rates for FY25 and FY26. The NAC also approved the updated growth rates for the first, second and third quarters of FY26 at 3.89%, 4.31% and 4.42%, respectively, compared with 3.92%, 4.05% and 3.99% presented at the 117th meeting of the NAC. The fourth quarter of FY26 recorded 2% growth in GDP. Large-scale manufacturing (LSM), measured through the Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM), declined from 6.11% to 5.01%.
The country’s GDP registered modest growth alongside an increase in per capita income in dollar terms, reflecting a sluggish pace of recovery in the country’s overall output compared with the previous year, the government said.
In May 2026, the government had projected the economy to grow by 3.70% in FY26, revising its earlier estimate of 4%. The International Monetary Fund has projected GDP growth at 3.6% for FY26, the World Bank at 3.7% and the Asian Development Bank at 3.7%, while the State Bank of Pakistan expects growth to remain close to 3.7%. The services industry declined from 4.09% to 3.81% in FY26, with positive contributions from all its constituents.
Growth in wholesale and retail trade was 2.37%, against the previous growth of 3.71%, due to a decrease in manufacturing and imports. The downward adjustment now indicates that the country fell short of its GDP target, a Dawn report showed. The NAC estimate places Pakistan broadly in line with the outlook of multilateral lenders, though with some variation.
