A snow-covered Christmas morning in 2026 will depend largely on where people live. Northern states and mountain regions are most likely to get a white Christmas, while much of the southern US will likely see snow-free conditions.
The predictions also say that there will be unsettled weather with mountain snow in parts of the Pacific Northwest and Southwest, and colder-than-normal conditions in the Southeast. NOAA climate data show the highest probabilities are concentrated across the northern tier of the US. In the interior northeast, a wintry mix is more likely than a picture-perfect snowstorm. The odds decrease farther south. In the Southeast US, Yuletide will be dry but unusually cold, with potential frosts all the way to the Gulf Coast. Scientists say warming temperatures have gradually reduced the area of the US where snow is likely to remain on the ground during late December. Warmer temperatures mean more winter precipitation falls as rain instead of snow, and existing snow melts faster before Christmas Day. As December approaches, Americans hoping for a classic snowy Christmas will have to wait for shorter-range forecasts.
Long-range forecasts suggest parts of the Rockies, northern Plains, and Pacific Northwest mountains could see winter weather around December 25. The Farmers’ Almanac 2026 holiday outlook predicts possible stormy conditions in the Rockies and Plains. Cities such as Duluth, Minnesota, Marquette, Michigan, and International Falls, Minnesota, historically record white Christmas probabilities between 80% and 95%. Northern Plains cities including Bismarck, North Dakota, Fargo, North Dakota, and Rapid City, South Dakota, also have strong chances, with historical probabilities between 75% and 85%. Chicago, Detroit and Indianapolis have historically recorded white Christmas probabilities between 25% and 45%, while cities in the Mid-Atlantic, including New York and Philadelphia, generally have lower chances. NOAA’s climate normals, which use 30-year averages from 1991 to 2020, show that some locations have experienced declining chances compared with earlier climate periods. Only a few weather stations in northern New England, certain stations on the lee side of Lake Superior and Lake Ontario, and isolated mountain areas in the West have a probability of measurable snowfall on December 25 that is higher than 50%, according to Farmer’s Almanac.
A traditional “white Christmas” is generally defined as having at least one inch of snow on the ground on December 25. The Pacific Northwest and Southwest US are likely to become unstable, with snowfall in high-terrain locations, according to the Farmer’s Almanac.
Meanwhile, states across the Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower Southwest have historically recorded very low chances of snow remaining on the ground on Christmas Day. The Great Lakes region, northern Plains and parts of northern New England historically see the strongest chances.
