The latest New York Times/Siena poll, released Sunday, shows Democrats leading in several traditionally Republican states, including Texas and Kansas, just days ahead of the midterm elections. Democratic Senate candidates are gaining momentum across seven closely watched battleground states, with new polling suggesting Republicans could face a serious challenge in their bid to retain control of the chamber.
Only 38% of likely voters across the seven states said they approved of Trump’s performance as president. Because trump won five of these states by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election, the finding is notable. The cost of living has also emerged as a significant issue for voters. Democratic candidates enjoy a nine-percentage-point advantage over Republicans on the question of which party voters trust more to address rising living expenses. Democrats lead on this issue in all seven states included in the survey. Their candidates are also ahead among independent voters across every state examined, suggesting that the party’s gains extend beyond its traditional voter base. With several races still highly competitive, the closing days of the election campaign could prove decisive in determining which party controls the US Senate.
Kansas is also showing signs of a competitive race. Beyond individual Senate contests, the survey highlights growing dissatisfaction among voters with President Donald Trump and the Republican Party’s handling of economic issues. In Texas, Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico is ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by seven percentage points, receiving 50% support compared with Paxton’s 43%. Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton leads incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 49% to 44%, according to the survey.
“While a blue wave and Democratic control of the Senate is, according to our polls, a distinct possibility, with so many races within the poll’s total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible,” Levy said.
