The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon is expected to commence from September 19, with the all-India monsoon deficit currently standing at -15%, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday, noting that the current monsoon was severely impacted by a strengthening El Nino, leaving several districts in the western, southern and northeastern part of the country in a rainfall deficit, which is unlikely to be bridged back.
The deficit is largest in the south peninsula region (-28%), followed by east and northeast India (-25%). It is at -6% in central India and -10% in northwest India. Among the states in a deficit—and unlikely to make a recovery—included key agrarian states like Punjab (-40%), Haryana (-23%), Rajasthan (-25%), Bihar (-35%), Karnataka (-29%), Kerala (-27%), Telangana (-20%), Andhra Pradesh (-43%), Tamil Nadu (-26%), Arunachal Pradesh (-42%) and Meghalaya (-59%), data shows.
The monsoon is expected to retreat in west Rajasthan around September 19, compared with the normal withdrawal date of September 17. Last year, the withdrawal began as early as September 14. Isolated scattered rains are also likely across Uttar Pradesh till September 18, it said. The all-India monsoon deficit touched -40% in June before widespread rains in July brought it down to -13% by the end of July. It was -14% at the end of August and stood at -15% overall, as of September 13. In its August 31 forecast for September, IMD said below normal rainfall (<91% of long period average (LPA)) was likely. The forecast came a fortnight after private weather forecaster Skymet Weather issued a revised forecast for the southwest monsoon season on August 17, saying monsoon rainfall was expected to be 85% of the long period average (LPA), with a 70% probability of drought. In its initial forecast issued in April, Skymet had forecast the monsoon to be 94% of the LPA. In its April forecast, IMD said the monsoon was likely to be 92% below the LPA this year. However, in its June outlook, it revised this forecast downward — from 92% to 90% — and attached a 60% probability to a deficient season.
“Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan around September, 19, 2026,” IMD said in a statement on Monday, forecasting fairly widespread rains over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad from September 15-17; across Punjab, Haryana and Delhi on 16 and 17; isolated activity across west and east Rajasthan from September 15-17.
