Rice prices have been rising in the domestic market amid expectations of lower production in the 2026-27 crop year (July-June), as inadequate rainfall and reduced fertiliser application are likely to affect yields from the paddy crop currently being harvested. Intensifying El Niño, a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures that affects rainfall and temperature patterns, has added to concerns over the production outlook.
Mehta attributed the higher prices to depleted carry-forward stocks and lower expected yields from the ongoing harvest. The increase in prices is visible in retail markets. Uneven rainfall during the growing season has raised concerns over yields. The intensifying El Niño could further influence rainfall patterns. The pressure on rice prices is not limited to India. The organisation attributed the increase to harvest delays in some exporting countries, adverse weather conditions and rising costs. Apart from weather-related supply concerns, rising demand for broken rice from the ethanol and poultry-feed industries is adding to pressure on the domestic market. This could also affect winter crops, which require lower temperatures and intermittent rainfall.
Paddy prices in Kota, Rajasthan, have risen to ₹ 4,500-4,700 per quintal from ₹ 3,200-3,400 a year ago, according to mandi trader Aniket Mehta. The average all-India retail price of rice was ₹ 49 per kg on November 10, nearly 14% higher than ₹ 42.96 per kg a year ago and 7% above ₹ 45.81 per kg a month ago, according to Department of Consumer Affairs data. The production concerns come as harvesting of the 2026-27 kharif paddy crop is underway. The Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) All Rice Price Index averaged 112.3 points in October, up 1.6% from September. It cited the US Climate Prediction Centre, which puts the probability of El Niño reaching its peak during October-December at 83%.
He said inadequate rainfall had left farmers with insufficient water for the crop and also restricted fertiliser application. Higher fertiliser prices amid the Iran war had added to farmers’ costs, further affecting their ability to use inputs, he said. Private weather forecaster Skymet Weather has said El Nino in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific continues to intensify, with the peak of the warming phenomenon yet to arrive.
