Israel’s October 27 election was framed by the Opposition as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu . With almost 90% of the vote counted, Israel is divided into three blocs, none of which can govern alone. For the country’s longest-serving Prime Minister, who oversaw the war on Gaza, attacked Iran twice and vowed not to make concessions to Palestinians, the election was a battle for survival. For the Opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, this was an opportunity to oust Mr. Netanyahu from power.
Netanyahu’s right-religious coalition has 53 seats, eight short of the 61 needed for a majority in the Knesset. His Likud is the largest party with 26 seats, down from 32 four years ago. His far-right partners, Otzma Yehudit of Ithamar Ben-Gvir (7) and Religious Zionism of Bezalel Smotrich (6), hold 13 between them, down slightly from 14 in the last election. The Opposition bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot, has 48 seats, 13 short of a majority. His Yesh Atid party, which was expected to beat Likud, finished second with 21 seats. His allies, B’Yachad of Naftali Bennett (12) and Israel Beytenu of Avigdor Lieberman (7), add a combined 19. They have 19 seats between them, with the Joint List winning 12 and the United Arab List (Ra’am) 7. This election was the first test of that claim since the failures of October 7, a war in Gaza that has killed over 70,000 Palestinians, including 20,000 children, and a failed campaign against Iran with global economic consequences. He will have 24 days to prove the majority. His 48 seats cannot reach 61 without the Arab parties. Even Ra’am’s 7 would take him only to 55. In 2021, Ra’am had supported the Bennet coalition government to keep Mr. But that experiment collapsed in 2022, forcing the country into another election, which Mr.
Netanyahu’s coalition won. On the latest count, Mr. The remaining seats in his bloc come from the religious parties—Shas and United Torah Judaism—each with seven seats. But the main surprise factor of the election was the surge of the Arab parties, which emerged as the third bloc. Likud’s slide is real, but it is smaller than the Opposition had hoped, and Likud outperformed many pre-election polls. Mr. Netanyahu, a wanted man by the International Criminal Court, a divisive figure at home, and the leader of Israel’s right, still commands the single biggest party and the single biggest bloc. Mr. Losing his majority and seeing his party shed seats shows that the claim has weakened, even if it has not collapsed. But the mechanics of Israeli coalition-building favour the incumbent. Mr. Netanyahu has vowed that he would form a right-wing government. As the leader of the largest party and the largest bloc, Mr. Netanyahu can expect to be invited by President Isaac Herzog to form the government. He has two ways forward. First, propose a unity government with Mr. Eisenkot and his allies. But it’s not clear whether Mr. Eisenkot, who has also promised to form the government, would back Mr. Netanyahu as Prime Minister. Second, Mr. Netanyahu could win the support of one of two of Mr. Eisenkot’s right-wing allies (such as Mr. Lieberman or Mr. Bennet) and form a Zionist coalition government. That would break Mr. Eisdenkot’s coalition. But if Mr. Netanyahu fails to win a majority, the mandate would pass to Mr. Eisenkot, who faces a harder problem. Netanyahu out of power. The Joint List has always been in opposition, and Mr. Eisdenkot would need their support – either direct or support from outside – to form a government. This is the Opposition’s central dilemma. Two of Mr. Eisenkot’s allies, Mr. Bennett’s B’Yachard and Mr. Lieberman’s Beytenu, have strongly opposed any alliance with Arab parties. The Opposition campaign was built on ousting Mr. Netanyahu from power, but the opposition coalition needs the support of Arab parties, traditionally kept on the margins of Israel’s power politics, which are reluctant to seek.
Netanyahu has built his career on one claim: that only he can “keep Israel safe”.
