By David Brunnstrom, Michelle Nichols and Emma Farge
Event Context
In the early rounds of straw polls, identical ballots are cast, allowing diplomats to see overall levels of support and opposition without revealing whether negative votes came from one of the Council’s five veto-wielding permanent members – China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States – whose support is vital.
Historical precedent suggests multiple rounds of polling could continue in the coming weeks and conclude in late September or early October. The process could take longer if no consensus candidate emerges.
Other candidates can still join the contest.
At a later stage in the process, the five permanent members use ballots of a different color from elected members that reveal whether a candidate has received a “discourage” vote from one of them.
The Security Council ultimately adopts a resolution, traditionally behind closed doors, recommending an appointment to the 193-member U.N. General Assembly. This needs nine votes in favor and no vetoes. Subsequent General Assembly approval has long been seen as a formality.
This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
Team Analysis
July 30 – A first informal U.N. Security Council poll on Thursday showed former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan as the early frontrunner in the race to become the next secretary-general of the United Nations, followed by former Guyanese Foreign Minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, diplomats told Reuters.
Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, was in a surprise third place among the seven candidates for the post, a diplomat said. In the non-binding “straw poll” voting by the 15 members of the Security Council, Grynspan received 10 “encourage” votes to nine for Rodrigues-Birkett and seven for Grossi.
The candidates are seeking to replace Antonio Guterres of Portugal when he steps down at the end of this year after two five-year terms.
Guterres’ successor faces the task of revitalizing an organization in crisis and declining stature, amid growing pressure to reform what critics say is a bloated, costly bureaucracy and reduce duplication across its agencies.
The other candidates are former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, former Ecuadorean Foreign Minister Maria Fernanda Espinosa, former Senegalese President Macky Sall, and Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu, who entered the race last week.
Bachelet received six encourage, five discourage and four no-opinions; Sall six encourage, seven discourage and two no-opinions; Espinosa five encourage, two discourage and eight no-opinions; and Otunnu two encourage, five discourage and eight no-opinions.
Match Outlook
In the straw polls, of which multiple rounds are expected, Security Council members in secret ballots are asked whether they “encourage,” “discourage” or have “no opinion” on each candidate.
Diplomats said Grynspan also received one “discourage” vote and four no-opinion votes. Rodrigues-Birkett received two discourage votes and four no-opinions, while Grossi received two discourage votes and six no-opinions.
The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, told reporters after the meeting the voting was confidential and added: “We’ll let the process play out … We need a Secretary-General that is going to reform this institution, that is going to make it leaner, more fit for purpose, more relevant on the international stage.”
MULTIPLE ROUNDS EXPECTED
Two diplomats said the results were encouraging for Grynspan – assuming her single discourage vote did not come from a veto-wielding permanent member of the Security Council, while another added: “Birkett is the surprise there. If the two discourage are not P5, she could sneak in.”
Another diplomat said the straw poll revealed “no consensus” on any one candidate.
