With about 10 days left for the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, talk of a Democratic wave has shifted from opinion polls to voting reality. Statistician Nate Silver gives them a 75% chance of winning the Senate, which Republicans held strongly just a month ago. Every major forecast now predicts the Democrats will win the House of Representatives. The Grand Old Party faces five main problems: a President who is a liability, weak candidates, money not swaying voters, fissures in their heartland, and a party base turning against its own.
When a President rallies supporters in States that he won by huge margins two years earlier instead of margin seats, it conveys a hint of desperation. Let us begin with the President. Midterms are often a verdict on the White House. But he has campaigned in fewer than a third. The third problem is in the heartland. Republican incumbent Roger Marshall is tied in the polls with Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor who started one of the country’s largest churches. In Nebraska — a State Mr. He is about three points behind Senator Pete Ricketts. When a party spends the last two weeks defending strongholds of Kansas and Nebraska, it is on the back foot. Much of this can be explained by the national mood, since the party’s Senate candidate in Ohio is also behind by a similar amount. But some of Mr. Ramaswamy’s problems come from within his own party. He called Mr. Still, nearly one in five Republican primary voters picked Mr. Putsch. Ramaswamy, while students at a conservative youth event questioned whether a Hindu could represent a Christian State. Now, the same party that once questioned who belongs in America is asking the same question about its own candidate. Ohio is an apt lesson for the Republicans. A party can get through having an unpopular President, a weak candidate, or a tough electoral map in any given year. But it is much harder when all these problems happen at once and the party’s base starts judging its own candidates by their race, background and religion. Perhaps they deserve that loss.
His approval rating is below 40%. Kansas has sent only Republicans to this Senate seat since 1919, the longest streak for any party in U.S. history. Trump won by over 20 points — Democrats have stepped aside for Dan Osborn, a former union leader running as an independent. The anger goes back to the H-1B controversy in December 2024, when Mr. If Democrats win Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, or Ohio on November 3, it will be a wave, and the Republicans will have helped make it.
Donald Trump has made this election about himself, telling crowds to “pretend I’m on the ballot”. In September, he told Republicans in tight races that he would visit “every one of those 35 places”. Most stops have been in States he won easily, such as Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee, and Montana, which he said was his way “to thank them”. His rival in the Republican primary, Casey Putsch, posted a video of himself with a rifle inviting him to play “cowboys versus Indians”. Ramaswamy an “anchor baby” and said that there was “nothing remotely American” about him. Far-right commentator Nick Fuentes told his followers to oppose Mr. Ramaswamy said American culture undervalued excellence, which angered ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) voters.
