But his shock victory on Sunday, securing him a fourth term and a place among the world’s longest-serving elected leaders, surprised even those in his own party. SÃO PAULO—Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former shoeshine boy born to illiterate parents, has made a life of defying expectations.
Never before in Brazil’s democratic history had a presidential candidate lost the first round and gone on to win the runoff. The right had already begun selecting ministers for a new government. Pollsters scrambled to explain how da Silva had revived the left in just three weeks in a region where conservatives have taken control of every major country except Mexico. Washington has yet to recognize the result, with President Trump telling reporters Monday that the race “looked like another rigged election While world leaders rushed to congratulate da Silva on the victory. A fierce grassroots mobilization brought young and elderly voters to the polls, many of whom had stayed home in the first round. Fearmongering stoked concerns among poorer Brazilians that they could lose government benefits under a right-wing administration. Da Silva also rapidly changed tack after his first-round loss. Gone was his signature Panama hat and the Workers’ Party’s trademark red; in came Brazil’s national colors of green and yellow, long associated with the Bolsonaro movement.
Just three weeks ago, da Silva was politically all but written off after losing the first round to Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of his bitter rival, former President Jair Bolsonaro, by a 45%-47% margin. Abstention was at its highest level since 1998, and polls—which have historically overestimated da Silva’s support—showed him narrowly trailing Bolsonaro. As investors reacted to da Silva’s unexpected resurgence and the prospect of another leftist government, Brazil’s currency plunged and stocks lost almost 20% early Monday. He also reversed his longstanding stance on crime, backing a proposal to try 16-year-olds as adults for serious offenses such as murder and rape.
Bolsonaro, who is under investigation for alleged money laundering and over efforts to secure financing for a film about his father from a banker embroiled in a fraud scandal, said police had ordered him to surrender his passports Monday over concerns he might flee the country after his election loss. But the explanation for da Silva’s seemingly miraculous comeback, according to political scientists, pollsters and the president himself, lay in a potent mix of hope—and, above all, fear.
“The most convincing explanation is that da Silva managed to build a coalition driven more by opposition to Bolsonarismo than by identification with the president himself,” said Leandro Gabiati, a political scientist and director at Dominium Public Affairs.
