Americans vote on Tuesday in midterm elections that will decide control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. For both parties, and for the contenders hoping to succeed him, it will shape the race for the 2028 presidential nomination and the direction each takes after Trump. But the results will have wider implications. For President Donald Trump, the vote is a referendum on his second term. Here is what is at stake for the key players:
Most indicators suggest that an electoral setback is likely for the 80-year-old commander-in-chief. Trump’s approval rating, an average of around 37%, is among the lowest in recent memory for a President leading his party into a major election. In fact, 54% of respondents said the loss of both the House and the Senate would be a sign that the party needed to hew closer to Trump’s policies. Some 44% of such respondents said the loss of both chambers would be a sign that the party must distance itself from the President.
An unpopular war with Iran, high energy prices and a sustained affordability problem have turned voters against Trump and his party ahead of Tuesday’s election. A poll by Politico found that Trump’s hardline Make America Great Again (MAGA) voters will likely back him even if he loses the midterms. Trump voters who do not identify as MAGA disagree.
The party suffered a major setback in 2024, when it lost the White House and the Senate to Republicans while also failing in its attempt to take back the House of Representatives. Winning one or both chambers will do much to restore the party’s confidence ahead of the 2028 presidential election. The 2028 presidential election battle will also begin in earnest within months of midterm elections. Three Republican names stand out as potential candidates for the 2028 election: Vice President JD Vance, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This poses a problem for Vance, who will have to balance loyalty to the president with distancing himself enough to avoid being tainted by Trump’s unpopularity, a difficult balance that Kamala Harris tried and failed to strike in the 2024 election.
More moderate voters have expressed less support for the President’s hardline views on immigration. A decisive Republican defeat could spark a battle within the party for the future of the party. The Democrats have been on a quest to redeem themselves for the last two years, while fighting off concerns that the party is too weak, out-of-touch and disorganised to beat Trump. A bad result will only further spotlight its weaknesses. Primary fights are divisive affairs even in the best of times. If the Democratic Party cannot handle its divisions to win even a Senate seat in Michigan, it will raise questions about how it will fare when its top leaders jostle for the party’s presidential nomination. The fortunes of the other two will be affected by Tuesday’s results. Vance is the frontrunner and the politician most closely tied to Trump. A Republican defeat might signal that the country is tiring of Trump and his policies. If Trump and the Republican Party face severe setbacks in Tuesday’s election, it could spark an intense competition within the party. Whoever wins the Democratic Party’s nomination could enter the race with an advantage, facing a Republican nominee saddled with an unpopular outgoing president, an unpopular war with Iran, and high prices. Managing the party’s internal divisions and personal rivalries over the coming months could become crucial.
Rubio has expressed a lack of interest in running and said he will support Vance’s candidacy. A victory on Tuesday will likely lead him to move closer to Trump’s policies to win support from the party’s base.
