Since taking office in October 2022 she has watched prime ministers in once-stable Britain, France and the Netherlands come and go. On September 4th Giorgia Meloni will become Italy’s longest continuously serving prime minister since Benito Mussolini. Her tenure is remarkable in a country where leaders tend to be as durable as gelato on a hot Rome day. Having risen to power as a hard-right populist, she has reshaped Italian politics and put herself at its centre. For other populist-right leaders in Europe, her lesson seems clear: tacking to the middle pays off.
It has also launched an investment plan for Africa, nominally intended to tackle the poverty that drives migrants to leave. Meanwhile a new party has emerged on the far right, led by an ex-general, Roberto Vannacci. It has attracted defectors from the FdI’s right-wing coalition partner, the League. That has forced the prime minister to become more radical on issues ranging from migration to hunting. The second ingredient is limited activity. The government has invested too little political capital in reforms to raise long-term growth, argues Carlo Cottarelli, a former director of the International Monetary Fund. But reluctance to challenge vested interests is good politics in an ageing, conservative society. That helps explain the third element in the Meloni mix: moderation. Ms Meloni’s actions in office have belied her radical rhetoric. Ms Meloni has crafted an effective relationship with Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president. She has unwaveringly supported Ukraine, defying those on the Italian right with a soft spot for Russia. And she has stood up to Donald Trump over the war in Iran and his attacks on the pope. On migration too, her bark has been worse than her bite. The government’s immigration restrictions have sensibly left room to accommodate Italy’s need for additional labour. To satisfy hard-right voters, Ms Meloni has built an expensive camp in Albania to process asylum claims outside Italy. But it may now go ahead: in June the EU approved such hubs for asylum-seekers from safe countries. Moreover, Ms Meloni herself might not govern as moderately in future. If France’s populist right wins next year’s presidential election, the EU might cease to be as much of a restraining factor. With the post-covid fund having run its course, there will be no worries about losing access to it. And the Italian prime minister has proposed an electoral reform that would give the winning alliance extra seats in parliament, cementing its majority. Ms Meloni also wants to introduce direct elections for prime minister. That could give her a personal authority no Italian prime minister has possessed. Not since Mussolini, anyway.
The budget deficit has dropped from over 8% of GDP during the pandemic to around 3%. With little publicity, it has authorised 450,000 visas for migrants from outside the EU. That scheme has so far been obstructed by the courts, and the camp holds no more than 80 people. Should her side win the next election, due by December 2027, it could then influence who becomes Italy’s next president; the current one, the left-leaning Sergio Mattarella, has been a brake on her power.
Antonio Misiani, the PD’s economic spokesman, says the government’s ministers are “navigating by sight” rather than shaping a strategy.
Despite her earlier Euroscepticism, her finance minister, Giancarlo Giorgetti, has scrupulously respected the EU’s fiscal rules.
