Farmers are preparing for the winter cropping season, but India is entering a period of uncertainty as depleted soil moisture and a strengthening El Nino raise the risk of delayed sowing, lower acreage and weaker yields, while also putting pressure on water availability and food supplies.
“Combined with the prospect of a dry October under a strengthening El Nino, [this] spells serious trouble for rabi sowing and overall crop prospects. Rabi crops are sown after the southwest monsoon recedes, making the moisture accumulated during the monsoon crucial for planting. The concern comes after the southwest monsoon ended with rainfall 12.6% below normal, making it the fourth-lowest monsoon rainfall since 2001. East and northeast India recorded a 25% deficit, while south peninsular India was 24% below normal, leaving several farming regions with limited moisture as the winter crop season approaches. A Crisil Economics assessment said soil moisture levels as of August 20 were below the decadal average in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, northern Jharkhand, Bihar, Punjab, western Gujarat and parts of the northeast. The IMD’s district-level data showed that 32% of districts were in the deficient rainfall category in September and another 16% in the large-deficient category.
Because last year’s surplus rainfall helped maintain storage, former agriculture secretary Devesh Choudhary said reservoir levels have so far held up to some extent.
“The deficient southwest monsoon of 2026, closed with a 13% below the long-period average and 21% below last year, has left large tracts of the country with inadequate soil moisture,” founder of HnyB Tech-Incubations Pvt. Ltd Deepak Pareek said. “But this is not the same for several states, especially in the southern region where rabi crops will suffer,” he said.
India’s average maximum temperature in September was 32.05°C, the highest for the month since 1901. The mean temperature of 27.72°C was the fifth-highest. The impact will therefore not be uniform.
El Nino is the periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that can disrupt global weather patterns. Several global weather models, as well as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its latest forecast, have indicated that the phenomenon is strengthening and is expected to become very strong towards the end of this year, in November, when most of India sows its crops. High temperatures are also worsening the moisture stress. Irrigated farmers may be able to maintain sowing by using groundwater and canals, while rainfed farmers could delay planting, reduce acreage or shift crops depending on water availability, Crisil noted.
October is also expected to see above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures across most of the country, according to the Indian weather bureau.
