ON THE CAMPAIGN trail in 2024, Donald Trump promised a tariff-fuelled revival of America’s old industrial towns. In Latrobe, Pennsylvania, he vowed to “bring back our manufacturing jobs, our energy jobs… and our dreams. In Detroit he talked about manufacturing jobs moving from Mexico to Michigan. The promise was not simply more American-made goods, but more Americans making them. Has the president delivered?
The revival, in other words, is conspicuously short of factory hands. Even if more carmaking returns later this decade, the armies of assembly workers will not. Robots now do much of the work. Meanwhile, the industries expanding fastest are already struggling to find enough skilled workers. More than half of aerospace firms report shortages of technicians; Mr Leavens sees the same problem among electrical-equipment makers. Mr Trump’s presidency may see investment in robot-filled factories and create demand for highly skilled workers. That would constitute a manufacturing revival, but perhaps a different one than the president’s supporters hoped for.
From December 2025 to July 2026 auto production jumped about 9%, accounting for around a quarter of the overall rise in manufacturing. General Motors (GM) will also shift production of some models from China to America, thereby avoiding tariffs of more than 50% on Chinese-built vehicles. Aircraft production grew by nearly 9% in the first half of the year, but the industry’s recovery began in 2022. Across more traditional manufacturing, meanwhile, employment fell by roughly 34,000, with losses in industries such as food processing and plastics. Even in some of the industries driving the production rebound, job gains have been modest (see chart 2). Employment in the car industry is up by less than 1%.
Tax credits and subsidies for renewables helped spur spending on transformer factories and other grid equipment, says Donald Leavens, chief economist at the National Electrical Manufacturers Association. The president can point to some results. Ford is not the only carmaker changing its plans. GM has cut back Canadian operations, too. Stellantis (whose largest shareholder part-owns The Economist’s parent company) has moved future production from Canada to America. Honda is moving production of its Civic from Mexico to Indiana. In other industries the manufacturing upswing was already under way before Mr Trump’s return to office. Electrical-equipment makers are still benefiting from an investment cycle accelerated by policies enacted under Joe Biden. Chipmakers, meanwhile, have shed workers even as output has surged—an unsurprising development in such a capital-intensive industry.
“A lot of that is still playing out today.
