Modern conflicts are no longer confined to land borders but increasingly centred on control of critical sea routes that sustain global trade and energy flows, veteran journalist and former Union minister MJ Akbar said on Tuesday while speaking at a lecture organised by Chandigarh Citizens Foundation’s (CCF).
Event Context
Akbar described the United States as having evolved into a “hyper power”, increasingly acting in its own strategic interest rather than within a shared global framework.
He argued that this shift, along with weakening global institutions, is eroding the rules-based international order established after World War II. “The sovereign state concept has been weakened. Both strong and weak nations now act without restraint,” he said.
India’s strategic recalibration
The former minister criticised India’s past approach of “masterly inactivity” but said there has been a noticeable shift in recent years. He highlighted India’s growing maritime focus, including expansion in the Andaman and Nicobar region and efforts to build strategic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific. He also underlined the importance of diversified diplomacy, cautioning against over-reliance on any one global power.
Emphasising India’s strategic location astride the Indian Ocean and the approaches to the Malacca Strait, Akbar underscored the need for India to continue strengthening its maritime capabilities. He commended the Indian Navy’s ongoing modernisation and observed that the vision of building a 200-230 ship Navy by 2047 represents a well-conceived strategy to ensure India’s place at the global decision-making table.
On Pak’s ‘growing influence’ in region
Player Focus
Organised in collaboration with the Centre for Research in Rural and Industrial Development (CRRID), the lecture was titled: “The Coming War of the Six Seas: Geopolitics, Maritime Strategy and India’s Role”.
Akbar mapped a continuous arc of geopolitical tension across key water bodies — the Mediterranean, Black Sea, Caspian Sea, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and the emerging theatre of the Indian Ocean.
Referring to recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, he cautioned that disruptions in these strategic waterways have demonstrated how vulnerable the global economy remains to maritime instability.
Team Analysis
Akbar also cautioned against India’s shifting strategic focus, remarking that “after spending your whole career worrying about Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, you will not spend the next decade worrying about Pakistan-occupied gulf,” hinting at Pakistan gaining advantage in the ongoing West Asia conflict.
Match Outlook
He argued that conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war must be viewed through this maritime lens, with Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, aimed at securing access to the Black Sea. “The war in Ukraine does not begin with Donetsk; it begins with Crimea. Energy flows of the world are controlled by water. Therefore, water will be contested,” he said.
China, Russia & the next flashpoint
Akbar flagged the possibility of a future China-Russia conflict, rooted in historical territorial claims, particularly over Siberia and border regions. He pointed to the evolving Chinese strategic doctrine, where “war and talks go together” and suggested that conflicts will increasingly occur in intermittent bursts rather than continuous wars. The next major flashpoint, he warned, could be the Malacca Strait, through which nearly 80% of China’s energy imports pass, making it a critical vulnerability.
Beyond maritime tensions, Akbar reiterated his concept of “unfinished states” – regions with unresolved identities and borders will most likely be the drivers of land-based conflicts. He traced a chain of instability stretching from Eastern Europe through West Asia to South Asia, warning that these conflicts are interconnected and could merge into a wider crisis.
Shift in global power balance
Akbar flagged a potential geopolitical alignment involving China, Pakistan and key West Asian nations, which he said could significantly influence future conflicts. He warned that while Pakistan alone may not pose a major threat, its positioning within a broader alliance structure could alter regional dynamics.
Warning of ‘global anarchy’
“The United Nations was the basis of the sovereign state. Who cares about the United Nations now?” said Akbar, arguing that “the sovereign state concept has been killed.”
Concluding his lecture, Akbar warned that the convergence of maritime competition, nuclear-armed states, and weakening global norms could push the world towards instability. “One world is dead and the other is not yet born. We are in that dangerous transition,” he said.
At the conclusion of the programme, Ramesh Inder Singh and Vini Mahajan, both former Punjab chief secretaries, Samant Goel, former head of Research & Analysis Wing, and JM Balamurugan, IAS (retd), all members of the governing council of CCF, felicitated Akbar in recognition of his illuminating and thought-provoking address.
