The 2026 midterms Kansas Senate race has emerged as an unexpectedly competitive contest, with Democrat Adam Hamilton narrowly leading Republican incumbent Roger Marshall as per latest polls.
The Emerson College Polling – Nexstar Media survey, conducted September 15-16 among 750 likely voters, found Hamilton at 45% and Marshall at 43%, with Libertarian candidate David Graham at 4% and 8% undecided. The Emerson poll also found that independent voters backed Hamilton 42% to 27%, while the economy was the top issue for Kansas voters at 48%, followed by healthcare at 14%.
Cook Political Report moved Kansas from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, citing attacks over Marshall’s medical billing and collection practices, economic pressures facing agriculture and the increasingly competitive campaign being run by Hamilton. Sabato’s Crystal Ball also moved the race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. The publication cited the Emerson poll and recent scrutiny surrounding Marshall, while noting that it would still be surprising for Kansas to elect a Democratic senator this year. For Marshall, the polling underscores the need to hold Republican support while competing for independents and voters focused on economic issues.
With 8% undecided in the latest Emerson survey and recent polls moving in different directions, the Kansas Senate contest remains closely watched as the 2026 midterm campaign enters its final stretch.
For Hamilton, the challenge is converting his current support into a broader coalition in a state that has historically favored Republicans.
