The southwest monsoon staged a substantial recovery in July, but is expected to slow again through August and September, with below-normal rainfall — less than 94% of the long-period average — likely for the remainder of the season, the India Meteorological Department said on Friday.
What It Means
These low pressure systems helped bring particularly good rainfall over central India,” he said, noting that Valsad in Gujarat recorded more than 1,000mm of rainfall in a single day during the month. Mohapatra attributed the recovery to a surge in low-pressure systems. “India saw four low pressure systems developing in July over the Bay of Bengal, out of which two intensified further into a depression.
“Despite a moderate El Nino, above normal low pressure system (LPS) days helped negate the effect somewhat,” he added.
Outlook
IMD director general M Mohapatra said above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures are also likely across most of the country in August, a month that is itself expected to see below-normal rainfall overall, at less than 94% of LPA. The season’s cumulative rainfall stood at -13% as of July 30 — a sharp improvement from -40% at the end of June. July itself recorded 283.3mm of rainfall nationally, 1% above the LPA of 280.5mm, reversing IMD’s own forecast for the month, which had projected rainfall at 94% of LPA.
The August forecast follows a marked turnaround in July.
Issuing its long-range forecast for the next two months at a press conference, IMD said El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen further in the coming months, which will weigh negatively on the monsoon’s second half.
