IT IS POSSIBLE he has only a few more weeks as Israel’s prime minister but Binyamin Netanyahu is not finished. He is gearing up for another series of major air strikes on Iran in the coming weeks, perhaps alongside America, even if he loses the election on October 27th. In fact, the prospect of such a loss may well be driving his calculations.
In rhetoric alone this already marked an escalation. It is, they are clear, up to the Iranian people. But the signs are that Mr Netanyahu is going to try nonetheless. Israel’s intelligence officials have been ordered to prepare new lists of targets for strikes in Iran. Large numbers of Israeli aircraft have been flying close to Iran’s borders. Such manoeuvres, along with Mr Netanyahu’s bellicosity, could provoke Iran to strike first. For the prime minister, that would be ideal, providing him with a cast-iron excuse for war. Even if Mr Netanyahu loses the election on October 27th , as the polls predict he will, he is unlikely to be deterred. Indeed, the knowledge that he has only a short time left in office could give him further impetus to order an attack. Strikes on Iran would draw an Iranian retaliation, probably in the form of missiles descending on Israel’s cities. This could disrupt the attempts of his rivals to form a new coalition themselves and pressure some of the opposition leaders to join a unity government with him in the name of national emergency. Mr Netanyahu does not have free rein to act, however. Several obstacles have stood in his way until now. The most obdurant is Donald Trump: the Israeli prime minister has not felt able to attack without the go-ahead from the American president. Since announcing the first ceasefire with Iran on April 8th Mr Trump has rebuffed Mr Netanyahu’s entreaties to allow Israel to resume strikes. Even when America attacked Iran again, Israel was forced to remain on the sidelines. That may be changing. On October 18th Mr Trump endorsed Mr Netanyahu, calling him a “Great Warrior Prime Minister, and an even greater Partner for Peace in combatting the Islamic Republic of Iran. A day later, Pete Hegseth, America’s secretary of war, visited an airbase in southern Israel where American warplanes are operating and met there in secret with Mr Netanyahu. The fourth stumbling block for Mr Netanyahu is the upcoming election. He may see it as a reason to rush to war but, if the polls are borne out, his days in office are numbered. His ruling coalition looks unlikely to win a majority. Mr Eisenkot could form a minority coalition, but only if his fellow opposition leaders agree to rely on the support of the Arab parties, which some of them have so far ruled out. Mr Netanyahu will stay on for some weeks or even months as a caretaker prime minister if his opponents are unable to form a new government quickly. But both security professionals and opposition party leaders may claim that Mr Netanyahu is dragging Israel into another war on false pretenses.
Yashar, a newish centre-right party led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former general, is likely to win 22 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, according to The Economist ’s poll tracker . Likud, Mr Netanyahu’s party, is on track for 21 seats.
During Israel’s (and America’s) war with Iran earlier this year, his government’s official aim was to “create the conditions” for the regime’s fall. He warned that if Iran did not “change their ways, rapidly” America would have to “soon finish the job. If Israel is led by “anyone other than Bibi”, he continued, “America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so. Yair Golan, leader of the left-leaning Democrats and himself a deputy head of the IDF, says that Mr Netanyahu’s announcement at the officers’ school was “delusional” and means he is now a “danger to Israel”. He reckons that General Zamir’s ability to stand up to Mr Netanyahu is “critical”. Forming a new government quickly is essential, he continues: “There’s no time for political bargaining.”
Today Israel’s security chiefs believe they cannot topple the regime from the outside.
