New Delhi, The University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute’s report that claimed that the ‘super El Nino’ might cause around 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India over the next six months, was measured using two components, seasonal temperature forecasts, and temperature-mortality relationships, a co-author of the study said.
“When considering a wide suite of seasonal forecasts that are available, the ECMWF SEAS sits in the middle in terms of the projected temperature anomalies, so this presents a relatively moderate view. Speaking about the findings in the report, Abhiyant Tiwari, who leads the climate resilience and health team at Natural Resources Defense Council in India, noted that it is a useful early warning and underlines the call to action. We also used temperature-mortality relationships that were peer-reviewed and published in one of the most rigorous economics journals, the Quarterly Journal of Economics in November, 2022,” Grover-Kopec, who is also a director at the climate and energy practice at the Rhodium Group, said. “Using a long baseline period of 30 years in climate science is common and often considered best practice.
We therefore referenced the most recent 30-year period as our baseline: 1996-2025,” Grover-Kopec told PTI.
Emily Grover-Kopec, a co-author, told PTI that temperature-mortality relationships were assessed using “one of the most commonly referenced seasonal forecasts” from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts . She said that the earlier study used the same formula to predict deaths far into the future based on climate models, adding that this time it was used differently for shorter-term seasonal forecasts.
The recently published report claimed that the climate phenomenon could push global land temperatures 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal in the coming months, resembling the higher temperatures that climate change is projected to deliver in the next 20 years. “The report further cements the current knowledge regarding heat impact on human health in the form of mortality and morbidity. As expected, the South Asia region is getting one of the worst estimates of mortality.
However, it also provides us an opportunity to act swiftly with clear intention for mitigation strategies such as implementing Hs at all levels, data driven policy making, and developing data-sharing mechanisms at national and local levels,” Salve told PTI.
