After nearly six years in the White House and more than a decade at the center of American politics, Donald Trump can still shock the world.
In the past week alone, he has hinted at new attacks on Iran after the midterm elections, said that the U.S. will buy diesel fuel from Russia as American officials warned Europeans about a possible cutoff of weapons, announced an “energy cease-fire” that appeared to catch Kyiv by surprise, mused publicly about resuming hostilities against the Houthis, and called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to step aside.
The president’s latest burst of diplomatic activity reflects his convictions about Iran, Russia, the importance of energy and the unimportance of Europe. He has seen Iran as a threat to the U.S. since the 1980s and believes that an Iranian nuclear weapon or Iranian domination of the Persian Gulf’s energy resources would threaten American interests. He believes that fossil fuels will remain a key element of geopolitical and economic power and wants the U.S. to play the predominant role in the Gulf. Mr. Trump has sought to reconcile his own instincts with the wishes of his base by pursuing a divided policy. in general he’s given the hawks more influence over Iran policy while catering to restrainer sensibilities on Russia While never giving anybody everything. As he contemplates a longer and messier war in the Middle East, Mr. Trump wants to satisfy his restrainer allies with a more aggressive attempt to build ties to Moscow. That he can present his Russia diplomacy as an effort to secure cheaper fuel as the midterms approach is an added benefit. Wars make the former task easier but complicate the latter. Conflicts make for compelling theater, and nobody understands this better than Mr. Trump. But wars also turn out to be hard to spin. Despite the president’s efforts, the war between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate. Despite his claims about Iran’s weakness and helplessness, gasoline and diesel prices remain high and reports about the vulnerability of American bases in the Gulf to Iranian missiles persist. Where’s the magic, supporters are beginning to wonder. Shock-and-awe foreign policy offers hope of breakthroughs that would shore up the president’s position. The world should brace for more Trump shocks. He has no incentive to calm things down.
