Saudi Arabia is increasingly under siege: A practical reader guide

Saudi Arabia is increasingly under siege: A practical reader guide

Witnesses said the missiles scored a direct hit on Terminal 3, which handles domestic flights; part of the roof collapsed. At least 13 people were killed—four Saudi citizens and eight foreign residents—and 309 were wounded, some critically. The airport has been shut for more than 24 hours. A day later the Houthis carried out a fresh attack on Terminal 4, causing a fire.

IT WAS THE third attack on Riyadh’s airport in less than a week, and the deadliest. On October 10th the Houthis, an Iran-backed Shia militia, struck it with missiles. It is unclear when it might reopen.

The Houthis still control much of Yemen, despite a Saudi-led invasion in 2015 that was meant to remove them from power. A ceasefire in 2022 froze the front lines, but the wider Gulf war that America and Israel began in February made the truce look unsustainable. Last month the Houthis launched an offensive that swiftly seized much of Yemen’s south-western coast, including the port city of Mokha. The crown prince is determined, they say, to retake territory lost to the Houthis last month. This month they invoked a mutual-defence pact with Pakistan and Turkey, which was signed in August.

The attack on October 10th was the worst attack on the kingdom in more than a decade, and it came just two weeks before the country is due to host a flagship investment conference. The attack raises questions about both Saudi Arabia’s air defences and the future of its war in Yemen, which recently roared back to life after a years-long truce. By summer both sides were preparing for renewed fighting. The Saudis and their Yemeni allies began a counter-offensive this month. Progress has been slow. They have recaptured a strip of the coast, but for now they seem to have halted around the town of Dhubab, 40km south of Mokha. As ever in Yemen, campaigns start strong but quickly grind into stalemate. Meanwhile, the Houthis are still trying to encircle Taiz, the third-largest city in Yemen and a stronghold of anti-Houthi resistance. They have also resumed missile and drone attacks on Saudi infrastructure, including refineries and military bases. The rebels have made airports a particular target and warned passengers to avoid Saudi airspace. For three weeks they have carried out steadily larger attacks on the airport in Riyadh. A missile strike on October 8th killed three people, including a pilot, and destroyed a plane belonging to a Saudi state-owned carrier. Foreign airlines cancelled hundreds of flights. Yet Saudi authorities kept the airport open—a decision that now looks reckless to many in the capital. It is unclear why the Saudis were unable to intercept the missiles. They have advanced air-defence systems, including American-made THAAD and Patriot batteries. Like many other countries in the region, however, they are concerned about dwindling supplies of interceptors after almost eight months of war. The annual event, organised by the crown prince, Muhammad bin Salman, and often dubbed Davos in the desert, usually draws a who’s who of global finance. Cancelling it would be an embarrassment. Yet it is unclear how many executives will be willing to attend, or even how they might reach the kingdom. Flying to other cities may not be an option: the Houthis have also targeted the airport in Dammam, a four-hour drive east of Riyadh. This gets at a larger Saudi dilemma. The Houthis do not care about governance. They treat areas under their control like private fiefs, funding their war machine with heavy taxes and fees on an already desperate population. A decade of war has immiserated Yemen, but the rebels are willing and able to keep fighting. The Saudi government has more to lose: a long war, with regular attacks on airports and energy facilities, will upend its plans for economic diversification. Armchair generals on Saudi social media insist the country will fight until it achieves a decisive victory over the Houthis. Sources who have met the kingdom’s leaders recently have a different view. The Saudis have rounded up some international support. Britain has sent an aerial-refuelling tanker. France has promised troops to protect a key oil port on the Red Sea. None of this will prove decisive against the Houthis, however. The other option is to cut a deal. The Houthis would demand a high price. They would expect economic benefits, an end to the Saudi blockade of Yemen’s airspace and other concessions. And it would set a dangerous precedent: the Houthis would know that attacks on civilian infrastructure were an effective form of blackmail. After more than a decade of war, the Saudis find themselves with no good options.

Hours before the latest attack, organisers said they were still planning to go forward with the Future Investment Initiative on October 26th. “Whether they have clear goals beyond that, I don’t know,” says one Western official. Pakistan has deployed several thousand troops, although it says they will not be involved in Yemen. Donald Trump has repeatedly rebuffed Prince Muhammad’s requests for American air strikes but the American president said he might reconsider after the airport attack.