BEIJING—China is on the cusp of becoming a high-income country by the World Bank’s classification. But Beijing would rather not be grouped with the world’s wealthy nations.
The World Bank, which doesn’t use developed or developing country labels, has said it will phase out loans to China by 2031. Its annual lending to China fell to $750 million in 2025, down from $2.4 billion in 2017.
By the World Bank’s definition, China became an upper-middle-income country in 2010, when it also surpassed Japan as the world’s second-largest economy by gross domestic product.
“I’m tempted to believe China will do its utmost not to be classified as a developed economy,” said Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at the French bank Natixis.
Nonetheless, China is likely to reach the high-income category for 2026 when the World Bank releases its calculations next July. For 2025, the World Bank measured China’s GNI per capita at $14,230, just below the high-income threshold of $14,375. Last year, U.S. gross national income per capita was $88,810.
The bank defines its categories using gross national income—the total money earned by a country’s residents and businesses both domestically and abroad. It translates other currencies into dollars using a method to smooth out exchange-rate fluctuations.
“High-income” by the World Bank’s definition doesn’t necessarily mean rich as Americans would perceive it.
