On October 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a warning to the West. In a grand hall in Moscow, Mr. Putin sat before an audience of foreign policy experts at the Valdai Discussion Club. “If it comes to a direct attack on the Russian Federation… then, of course, the question of the Russian Federation deploying all types of weapons at our country’s disposal will inevitably and immediately be on the agenda. This is inevitable.”
Putin continued to insist that Moscow had no plans to attack anyone — neither in 2029, not in 2030, not even in 2050. He was referring to Kaliningrad. Mr. European citizens, he added, should understand this clearly. The warning did not appear out of nowhere. For months, NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) countries have been increasing military activities in the Baltic Sea and around Russia’s western borders. Russia has accused the alliance of increasing military pressure around Kaliningrad and has sent a formal diplomatic note to NATO over what Moscow sees as attempts to isolate the territory. NATO, however, has rejected those accusations, saying its activities in the region are ‘defensive’.
But if aggression came, he said, Russia would be compelled to respond. “I can confirm that Russia sent a non-paper to NATO and that we have sent a response, noting that NATO is a defensive alliance and none of our activities or exercises pose a risk to any part of Russia,” said alliance spokesperson Allison Hart. “We strongly denounce the threat of force, including any irresponsible nuclear rhetoric,” she added.
So what is Kaliningrad? Kaliningrad is a Russian exclave; a piece of sovereign Russian territory that is separated from the rest of the country by land. It sits on the Baltic Sea, wedged between Poland and Lithuania, both NATO members. It has no land border with mainland Russia and is roughly the size of the U.S. state of Connecticut, as Reuters describe. It was formerly the German city of Königsberg and the capital of East Prussia. Not only is Kaliningrad a military asset for Russia, but also a vulnerability. Its location gives Moscow a military position close to Poland, Lithuania, and the rest of NATO’s eastern side. Russia has deployed air-defence systems, coastal-defence missiles, and Iskander missiles there, giving it the ability to project military power across parts of the Baltic region. But Kaliningrad’s location is also its weakness. It is isolated from mainland Russia, surrounded by NATO territory and the Baltic Sea. In the event of a war, Russia would find it much harder to reinforce and supply the territory. The Suwałki Gap makes this even more important. It is a narrow strip of land between Poland and Lithuania and the only land connection between the three Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) and the rest of NATO. The alliance would need to keep this corridor open to move military support into the Baltic states in the event of a conflict. Russia has Kaliningrad on one side of the gap and its ally Belarus on the other. That is why this area is so closely watched by both sides. NATO has increased its military presence in the region, while Finland and Sweden have joined the alliance, fundamentally changing the strategic geography of the Baltic Sea. From NATO’s perspective, these measures are defensive, but Moscow sees them differently. Russia has repeatedly accused NATO of increasing military pressure around its borders and and of trying to limit Russia’s influence. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte responded by saying the alliance had responded to Russia’s message: “We are a defensive alliance. And stop the nuclear threats. This is absolutely not called for and not helpful. This is not the first time Kaliningrad has become the centre of warnings from Russia to the West. But the episode did not lead to direct military conflict. Russia has also repeatedly used Kaliningrad for military signalling, including the deployment, and exercises of nuclear-capable Iskander missiles. There is currently no evidence that NATO is preparing to attack or seize Kaliningrad. Mr. Putin’s language was also framed around what Russia would do if it were attacked. This appears a signalling rather than an ultimatum. But the risk of miscalculation is real. Kaliningrad sits in one of the most militarised parts of Europe, with Russian and NATO naval vessels and military forces operating in relatively close proximity. And also NATO does not see the current situation as an immediate nuclear threat. Asked whether the risk of nuclear weapons being used against the Baltic states was now real, Mr. Putin knows that he can never win against NATO, so I don’t take this that seriously. So even as Russia has repeatedly used nuclear signalling during its confrontation with the West, NATO has continued to insist that its military posture in the region is defensive. (Smriti Sudesh is a postgraduate student at SOAS University of London)
The Soviet Union took control of the territory after the Red Army captured Königsberg in April 1945 and the victorious Allies divided East Prussia at the end of the Second World War. The city was renamed Kaliningrad in 1946, and it was rebuilt as a Soviet military and industrial centre. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 and the Baltic states became independent, Kaliningrad became an exclave. The military geography of the Baltic region has changed significantly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. NATO has also increased maritime surveillance and launched Baltic Sentry in 2025 to strengthen the protection of critical undersea infrastructure. In 2022, after the EU imposed sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, Lithuania restricted the transit of certain sanctioned goods through its territory to Kaliningrad.
Any incident involving a ship, aircraft or military exercise could therefore escalate much faster than either side intended.
Part of Moscow’s reaction, according to Financial Times , was also directed at recent British media coverage of the exclave, including a Sky News documentary depicting a fictional war-gaming scenario. Moscow called the move a “blockade” and threatened retaliatory measures. Russian officials have repeatedly said an attack on Kaliningrad would be treated as an attack on Russia itself. Rutte told a defence conference in Brussels hosted by broadcaster Euronews : “No, it’s not.
Today, around a million people live there.
