U.S. forces are set to pull out from their last bases in Iraq by Wednesday (September 30, 2026), a departure celebrated as a victory by Iran and its allies who now have deep influence in the country where 4,500 Americans died during more than two decades of war.
Iraqi security experts say the withdrawal — agreed in 2024 under then- President Joe Biden and carried out by Donald Trump’s administration even as it wages war against Iran — could give Tehran and its powerful allies free rein, while also allowing other U.S. enemies to stage a comeback, including Islamic State.
“Iran stands to benefit strategically from the coalition’s departure because it removes a military presence that for years acted as a counterweight to Tehran’s influence in Iraq,” said Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst specialising in studying armed Shi’ite groups aligned with Iran. “For more than two weeks, we have noticed movement by [Islamic State] sleeper cells, after it was announced in the general media that there will be an official withdrawal of the international coalition from Iraq by the end of September,” he said. “This has boosted, in my opinion, the morale” of the fighters.
“All Iraqis aspire to full sovereignty, and no Iraqi would dispute that. But I believe that the [U.S.-led coalition] leaving in this way and creating a vacuum is what all Iraqis fear. “Resistance groups are currently taking action, sometimes targeting and confronting American troops. Washington has accused Iran-backed militia groups in Iraq of playing a role in the wider Middle East conflict by launching attacks on neighbouring countries at the direction of Tehran, most recently hitting a major Saudi oil pipeline this month. Some Iraqi security officials, both in the federal government and the semi-autonomous northern Kurdish region, say the U.S. pullout also risks giving new life to Islamic State fighters, who, despite the defeat of their self-proclaimed caliphate nearly a decade ago, retain a sleeper cell network. At their height, the fighters occupied a third of Iraq and killed thousands of people, including hundreds they videotaped themselves gunning down inside a former U.S. military base.
American forces invaded Iraq in 2003 to topple Sunni Muslim dictator Saddam Hussein, and went on to occupy the country, install a Shi’ite-led government and fight a years-long counterinsurgency before withdrawing at the end of 2011. Earlier reporting noted: The departure, celebrated as a victory by Tehran and its allies, was agreed in 2024 under President Joe Biden and carried out by Donald Trump’s administration even as it wages war against Iran, which wields influence in Iraq through proxies. Earlier reporting noted: US forces invaded Iraq in 2003 and went on to occupy the country, install a Shi’ite-led government and fight a years-long counterinsurgency — first by Saddam loyalists, then al-Qaeda — before withdrawing at the end of 2011. They returned less than three years later to help Iraqi forces defeat the Sunni militant group Islamic State in a major war from 2014 to 2017.
Iran, which says its ultimate aim is to force American forces to leave the entire West Asia, casts the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq as a victory for its “axis of resistance” of allied armed groups across the region. “Lasting security will prevail in Iraq” once the Americans leave the country and the region, the deputy chairman of the National Security Commission of Iran’s Parliament, Amir Hayat Moqaddam, said on Monday (September 28, 2026). Iran “welcomes the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and will undoubtedly support it,” he told Iran’s parliamentary news service. The Baghdad government says it is trying to curb their influence. A lack of U.S. intelligence, logistical support and drones will give Islamic State a chance to regroup, said Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani. Earlier reporting noted: “The lesson from the past two decades is that security vacuums can be extremely dangerous,” said Jassim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi analyst who advises the security forces.
