Polls consistently favour Marine Le Pen of the populist-right National Rally (RN), who launched her campaign on September 13th. One presidential hopeful donned an apron and served frites from a food truck. Another put on a harness and climbed to the top of a wind turbine. Gimmicky showmanship means that presidential-election season is under way. At a two-round vote next April and May the French will elect a successor to Emmanuel Macron, who cannot stand for a third consecutive term.
With seven months to go, therefore, the presidential race has turned into a single question: who can beat Ms Le Pen?
Yet another launched a “1,000 bistros” listening tour.
Mr Macron was mentioned in only a few at this point before his election in 2017. Some past favourites (Edouard Balladur in 1994, Alain Juppé in 2016) subsequently crashed out. In over three years, Ms Le Pen has only once polled at below 30% in the first round.
Romania’sNicusor Dan, who won the presidency last year, deftly distanced himself from the old parties despite being the mayor of Bucharest. French polls this far ahead have often been wrong. “Her defeat or victory depends heavily on us. First, they have energy. Think of Peter Magyar, the centre-right liberal who defeated Hungary’s Viktor Orban in April. Or Rob Jetten, the centre-left liberal prime minister of the Netherlands. Both threw themselves into grassroots campaigning. Over two years Mr Magyar criss-crossed the country, at one point walking 300km and delivering up to seven speeches a day. Second, they are often rebellious outsiders—or can credibly portray themselves as such. Mr Macron was an elite-trained former minister who cast his bid as an insurgency against the established parties. Mr Magyar, a longtime member of the governing party, fashioned himself as the rebel from the inside, lambasting his former party’s corruption. Third, successful centrists have a knack for memeable initiatives on issues voters care about. Mr Jetten’s proposal for ten new cities was a serious-but-not-literal commitment to do something about the country’s housing crisis. Mr Dan showed he would fight corruption by turning up to stop the bulldozers on dicey public-works projects. Centrists who balk at simple slogans and slick reels will have trouble connecting to voters, especially the young. No centrist aspirant, by contrast, can pretend to an insurgency. Three served under Mr Macron: Mr Philippe; Gabriel Attal, another ex-prime minister; and Bruno Retailleau, an ex-interior minister and the Republicans’ nominee. The closest is Raphaël Glucksmann, who is standing at the Socialist primary, and shunned Mr Macron. But he trails in fourth place in polls. What would it take to agree on a single candidate? Polls and endorsements may put pressure on the weaker contenders, but that could take months. And even a deal among the trio might not be enough; the Socialists will rally behind their own nominee, and some on the right will defect to Ms Le Pen. Worries about fragmentation prompt some to hope for a grand outsider who could take the situation in hand. None of those hoping to play that role—from Dominique de Villepin on the right to François Hollande on the left—is convincing. And time is running out.
“The real difference between this election and previous ones is that it is possible this time for her to win,” says Clément Beaune, a former minister from Renaissance, Mr Macron’s party. “It’s too late for a primary,” says a supporter of Mr Philippe. Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank president, says it’s “not on the agenda”.
