NARVA, Estonia—This city on the eastern edge of NATO territory could be ground zero for fears of a Russian invasion.
The Russian empire ruled Estonia for nearly 200 years. The country gained independence in 1918, only to be swallowed by the Soviet Union during World War II. Even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Estonia was preparing to defend itself against Russia. Ground troops from other NATO members, including the U.K., have been deployed in the Baltics since 2017 and reinforced since 2022. They now number around 1,500. In addition, more than 200,000 people are in the country’s mobilized registry in case of invasion. The Baltics have also hardened themselves against certain types of assaults, she said, like a major 2007 Russian cyberattack on Estonia . Artur Säde, 41, grew up in eastern Estonia, with Russia just across Lake Peipus. The city of 53,000 is overwhelmingly Russian-speaking, and roughly a third of residents hold Russian, not Estonian, citizenship. Liam Fit, a 55-year-old Russian speaker who moved to Narva as a child, blamed the West for that conflict. Kirill Smirnov, an Estonian citizen and native Russian speaker from Narva, said he was far more frightened in 2022—when it seemed possible that Russia would take Ukraine, and then come for Estonia.
Last month, John Ratcliffe, director of the Central Intelligence Agency, made a surprise visit to Moscow to warn the Kremlin against such a move, The Wall Street Journal reported. The plan in case of a Russian invasion has also been updated since the Ukraine war began: Instead of falling back toward Tallinn to defend, Estonia’s doctrine is now to fight for every inch of the country’s territory. Because that’s how you attract investors and build a viable economy, “They’re positioning themselves as countries that are able to operate as normal,.
“We feel here that the war is close. But the only thing to do is keep living. Yet, Estonian officials are preaching calm amid a growing drumbeat of warnings from North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries that Russia could stage an attack on the alliance. Officials in Estonia say they don’t see any signs that Russia is preparing to send tanks and troops across its border, with its forces too bogged down in Ukraine to open another front elsewhere. “But full-scale military aggression against NATO? The figures don’t fit. In many ways the fight with the Kremlin has already started, Estonian officials say, as Russia threatens NATO countries with explosive-laden drones and commits acts of sabotage, in addition to its longstanding misinformation campaign across Europe. NATO and European Union leaders met last Wednesday to discuss how to respond to the increasing intensity of gray-zone attacks. Tsahkna and other European officials have called for stepped-up pressure on Moscow and increased support for Kyiv. Moscow has denied involvement in sabotage attacks in Europe. Estonia has its own suspicions about Russian attacks. Officials are investigating whether Russia-linked sabotage was behind the arson attack on a local defense company last month. “Not that we go to Russia and blow something up, but on the sanctions level. Estonia has a long history of facing threats from Russia. “We don’t know if we can really count on NATO. The physical defenses along NATO’s eastern flank, such as the dragon’s teeth, were erected in the past few years and dubbed the “Baltic Defense Line. Braw added that Russia has shifted the focus of its gray-zone attacks toward countries like Germany and the U.K., which are contributing more to Ukraine’s defense. Mostly, Estonians are heeding the calls for calm. He was used to looking warily to the east. “There could be some explosions, or drone situations on the border. But I don’t think it’s going to get much worse. Narva is a particular case. The attack forces NATO leaders to decide whether the city is worth risking a war with Russia. Many residents, especially older ones, watch Russian television and repeat the Kremlin propaganda about the war in Ukraine. “They’re scaring people, saying Russia is going to start a war. Still, calm is also prevailing in Narva. Write to Ian Lovett at [email protected]
“A lot of people say, ‘Narva is next’” on Russia’s list of military targets, said Katri Raik, a former Estonian interior minister and three-time mayor of Narva. “We need to watch carefully, must be ready for any kind…of real provocations,” said Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna. “He’s playing with our fear, organizing different attacks, sabotage, provocations,” Tsahkna said of President Vladimir Putin. Though the drone was Ukrainian, Tsahkna said it was nonetheless the result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and should inspire Europe to redouble its efforts to help Kyiv. “For every kind of attack, we should respond,” Tsahkna said in an interview. Elvi Orr, who recently moved back to Estonia after living in the U.S. for more than a decade, said the threat from Russia was something Estonians were always aware of. “People get flashbacks when they see what’s happening in Ukraine,” Orr, 45, said. After seeing the evolution of the war in Ukraine, officials said, they realized that it was much easier to hold territory than win it back. Estonian officials said it was important that NATO had skin in the game near the Russian border, even if there weren’t enough troops stationed there to deter a major Russian attack. “They’re integrated and they will be casualties in any hostilities,” Tsahkna said. An Estonian security official said the country had sought information from allies, such as Poland and Lithuania, that were speaking in more urgent terms about the threat from Russia but hadn’t gotten anything back that had changed their assessment. Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and an expert in combat below the threshold of warfare, said that, in part, Estonia was strategically playing down the risk Russia posed. “It’s not beneficial to the Baltic economies if they’re always talking about Russian threats,” she said. “Nothing like that has happened since,” she said, “and it’s not for lack of trying on the Russian side. “It’s not so critical,” Säde said. The city was even the subject of a recent book, “If Russia Wins,” which poses a hypothetical scenario in which Russia stages a surprise attack on the city after achieving its goals in Ukraine. It’s stupid,” he said, as he walked along the Narva River. Raik, the former mayor, said the sound of drones initially frightened her, but now she’s gotten used to it. Now, he said, it was clear Russia couldn’t start another war. “I don’t feel any threat from that bank of the river,” he said.
Last week, German officials blamed Moscow for a plot weeks earlier to send explosive drones to an airport in Leipzig, eastern Germany—one of the most serious incidents in a NATO country since the start of the war. Ukrainian drones bound for targets inside Russia are sometimes diverted by jammers or GPS spoofing; one struck an Estonian power station earlier this year. Putin has described Narva as historically Russian land.
