The populist-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was projected to win a staggering 44% of the vote, by a distance its best-ever score, and better than polls had predicted. A ROAR WENT up at the Altes Theater in Magdeburg, the capital of the east German state of Saxony-Anhalt, as the exit poll came in. Party grandees hugged each other on stage. The German national anthem followed.
Björn Höcke, the AfD’s leader in the state of Thuringia and one of its most radical figures, led the crowd in a lusty rendition of “So ein Tag, so wunderschön wie heute” (“Such a day, as beautiful as today”).
Perhaps the most crucial development was the success of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a pro-Russian populist outfit that split from the hard-left Die Linke some years ago, which just made it over the 5% threshold. The AfD was projected to win 39 of the parliament’s 83 seats; the BSW’s projected five would deliver a majority. (There is also speculation over possible defections by some CDU MPs to Mr Siegmund’s camp.) The deeply chastened CDU now looks set to lick its wounds—and let the AfD try to form a government. Because of tactical anti-AfD votes shifting to the Social Democrats and Greens to nudge them over the 5% threshold to enter parliament, the CDU’s vote share halved to 17%, presumably in part.
But there is no denying the depth of the defeat inflicted on his centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which leads both the federal government and the coalition in Saxony-Anhalt. Across town in Magdeburg the mood was decidedly subdued at the CDU gathering. Both, especially the Greens, outperformed expectations. There were calls from inside the CDU, including from the state party’s youth wing, for Sven Schulze, the state premier whom Mr Siegmund wishes to unseat, to resign. The BSW is the one party that has not ruled out working with the AfD, or at least tolerating it in office. Yet the BSW’s ambivalent stance shrouds the process in uncertainty. Ms Wagenknecht, the party’s leader, has called for a non-partisan state premier, but that is a non-starter. That does not sound like a promising basis for what would be the AfD’s first shot in government. Mr Siegmund sounded sceptical about the prospect of relying on BSW support. If the AfD tries and fails, or simply refuses to play along, Saxony-Anhalt will be stuck. Under state rules, there is no time limit for putting together a government or appointing a state premier; Mr Schulze could muddle along as acting premier indefinitely. Many in the CDU think their best hope is to do just that for a while, trust that voters’ mood lifts, and perhaps push for another election next year that might deliver a happier result. They will also want to avoid doing anything to harm their prospects in two further state elections, on September 20th. It is a view born of despair rather than determination. But that is a pretty fair description of the mood in Germany’s ruling party.
“It’s devastating,” said one party figure. More importantly, she has said her party would not necessarily join forces with other parties to block Mr Siegmund from taking office. Claudia Wittig, the BSW’s candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, said she could envisage co-operation with the AfD on “specific projects”.
Mr Merz will speak on Monday.
