Global temperature rise is likely to cross the 1.5°C threshold by the end of this decade, pushing climate risks and impacts such as intensified extreme weather to increasingly dangerous heights, a UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report released on Wednesday said.
“Now is the time we must double down on climate action. We can – and must – get on the right path. The report added that it is still possible to bring temperatures down and achieve global goals as per the 2015 Paris Agreement. Nations agreed to pursue efforts to keep the long-term temperature increase below the 1.5°C threshold under the agreement. The UNEP report, ‘Limiting Overshoot’, was released days after a glacial collapse and flash flood in Nepal left 1,127 people dead and thousands missing, underscoring the fragility of mountains amid a warming climate. UNEP executive director Inger Andersen said there are no good outcomes if the world remains above 1.5°C. By cutting greenhouse gas emissions, strengthening resilience and adaptation, and ensuring exceedance of 1.5°C is as small and short as possible.”
“Across the globe, extreme heatwaves are already proving that climate impacts will strike faster, hit harder, and last longer – costing more lives and causing deeper disruption,” she said.
The report identifies an overshoot, peak, and decline pathway as the best remaining option to minimise the magnitude and duration of the overshoot and try to return to below 1.5°C as soon as possible. Even then, it means surpassing the multi-decadal global warming level of 1.5°C, the central long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. Under this optimistic scenario of current government pledges (full implementation of all national climate plans plus meeting additional net-zero targets), the report puts the expected peak temperature rise at 1.8°C. The UNEP said that after crossing 1.5°C, risks and impacts will intensify with every extra fraction of a degree and every year.
“Anticipated impacts include intensified extreme weather, ecosystem loss, and submersion of Small Island Developing States and low-lying coastal cities. It warns that the likelihood of crossing irreversible tipping points increases with the magnitude and duration of higher temperatures. These include the destabilisation of major ice sheets, degradation of the Amazon rainforest and disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (the system of currents that moves warm surface water north and cold deep water south, playing a key role in regulating the climate). “Reductions in methane and other short-lived climate pollutants are particularly important in the immediate term. Enhancing adaptive and mitigation capacity requires strong political will, urgent multilateral action, effective policies and finance — with equity, justice and differentiated responsibilities serving as guiding principles.”
Severe damage to human health, food security, water supplies, nature, cities, infrastructure, and economies is expected,” the report says.
