India is likely to experience below-normal rainfall in September, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday (August 31, 2026) forecasting rainfall across the country to be at least 9% short of the long-period average of 167.9 mm. This comes after India experienced the hottest August since 1901.
September brings in about a fifth of the June-September monsoon rain, less than July’s 32% and August’s 29%. As of August 31, India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall was about 14% below normal, with central India in surplus but the northwest, east and northeast, and south peninsula all recording deficits. India received 213.3 mm of rain in August, the seventh-lowest since 2001. The country’s mean temperature reached 28.01°C, or about 0.67°C above normal. The average minimum temperature, at 24.36°C, was also the highest on record. Four low-pressure systems, precursors to cyclonic storms and, in the Indian context, mostly originating in the Bay of Bengal, persisted for a combined 26 days in August. This is substantially longer than the climatological average of 16.3 low-pressure days.
In recent years, September rainfall has seen a relative uptick. The shortfall was particularly pronounced in the east and northeast, and in the southern peninsula. IMD’s outlook at a press briefing comes on the back of a dry August. IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra explained this as a consequence of the ongoing El Niño, which dries out the atmosphere and raises temperatures. However, the month was not uniformly dry, with repeated low-pressure systems bringing heavy rain across the Indo-Gangetic Plains and parts of central and eastern India. For September, the IMD expects above-normal maximum temperatures over most of India and above-normal minimum temperatures over most areas, adding to the prospect of a warm, relatively dry end to the monsoon. However, their rainfall activity was largely confined to the Indo-Gangetic Plain. The systems repeatedly formed over the Bay of Bengal, moved west-northwest, and weakened over central and northern India. Frequent Western Disturbances – extra-tropical storms originating in the Mediterranean – also interacted with the monsoon circulation and low-pressure or cyclonic circulations, helping concentrate intense rainfall over eastern, east-central and parts of northwestern India rather than producing a more widespread monsoon revival.
Many parts of the country are expected to remain drier than normal, although parts of northwest, northeast, east, east-central India and isolated areas of southeast peninsular India could receive “normal to above-normal rainfall”.
