Russia has turned up the heat on Kyiv’s allies in Europe, with a string of grayzone activities aimed at sowing fear, as it struggles to advance on the ground in Ukraine and faces increasingly damaging Ukrainian drone and missile attacks at home.
Leaders across the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization say the moves are a worrying indication of Russia’s rising appetite for risk in Europe, as President Vladimir Putin seeks to curb flows of European aid to Ukraine and sow divisions among allies.
Whether Putin is behind all the mayhem or not, getting credit for it can play to Moscow’s advantage by boosting its reputation for influence and impact. Suspicions in the region quickly turned to Russian involvement. Officials in the U.S., U.K., Hungary and Romania over recent years have accused Moscow of trying to skew national voting.
The tempo of documented Russia-backed incidents has increased from a maximum of around 10 in many months since 2024 to around 15 a month since April, according to Ukraine’s Sahaidachnyi Security Center, which tracks Russian grayzone activities in Europe. Because many incidents suspected of being linked to Russia aren’t included in their data, sahaidachnyi analysts say trends can be difficult to discern.
“Russia is looking for ways to reduce support among NATO countries for Ukraine and, one of the secondary effects they are also pursuing is spreading panic,” said Remigijus Bridikis, director of Lithuania’s civilian intelligence agency. Slovak police on Tuesday said they had thwarted an attempted attack on a drone factory by “three foreigners,” whose nationality they didn’t identify. “The primary interest is to change the status quo in Europe,” said Estonian lawmaker Marko Mihkelson. “It’s an extension of the election interference you’ve seen them try to carry out” in other countries, he said.
In a sign of Washington’s concern, Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe on Tuesday made a surprise trip to Moscow , in part to tell Putin’s government that the U.S. stands by its NATO allies, according to people familiar with the visit.
