Throughout August they have launched drone and missile attacks against government positions, killing dozens of soldiers and civilians. FOR FOUR YEARS an uncomfortable truce has prevailed in Yemen, putting its long civil war on hold. But now open conflict is breaking out once again. The Houthis, Iran-backed armed rebels, have accused Yemen’s internationally recognised government and Saudi Arabia, its most important ally, of planning a big offensive. The Yemeni army has struck back hard.
On July 30th their leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi , said his forces would “respond to their full-scale escalation with one of our own”.
The Houthis think they have much to gain from restarting the war. Since mid-July the militia has been firing at Saudi-linked ships in the Red Sea, as well as ports, airports and refineries. The Houthis’ attacks have two aims. First, to blackmail the kingdom into paying Yemeni civil servants and lifting restrictions on flights and shipping. Second, to seize the initiative. If the Saudis and their allies were planning an offensive, the Houthis have beaten them to it.
Hardly any Saudi tankers have sailed through the Bab al Mandab strait, at the sea’s southern tip, this month, according to Kpler, a data provider.
They may also have bigger goals. But the rebels have long wanted more. The attacks seem designed to weaken the National Resistance Forces, an elite group of government-backed fighters that use Mokha as a base. Forcing them from the city would give the Houthis more control of shipping through the strait. The Houthis also want control of the country’s oilfields. Later that year they bombed oil terminals on the coast to prevent their foes exporting the fuel. Their fighters, who have mobilised in the region, could make another push for its resources. Even if they do not capture the wells, they may hope to force the government to share its revenues. In response, the government has also been talking up a fight. The truce four years ago was supposed to lead to a peace deal, but instead the Houthis have consolidated their power and strengthened their partnership with Iran. Giving them a bloody nose could help the government—whose leaders are mostly in the Saudi capital, Riyadh—regain credibility in Yemen. Such talk may mostly be intended to boost morale. But the anti-Houthi forces, who spent much of the winter fighting among themselves, are at least showing a more united front. The government has disbanded the Southern Transitional Council, a secessionist outfit backed by the UAE, bringing some of its troops under the army’s control. Government troops have become more adept at deploying drones, whose use has long been one of the Houthis main advantages. Still, they face a formidable foe. Limited strikes by Saudi and government soldiers have failed to deter the rebels. The Houthis have endured bigger and more targeted campaigns in the past. Last summer Israeli strikes killed most of the group’s civilian government, including its prime minister, but it quickly recovered . Nor would killing Mr Houthi, their leader, necessarily change much. All this should worry the government. Saudi or American support could bolster government soldiers on the ground. But the costs would be high. He may yet prove correct.
The Houthis have controlled Yemen’s north-west, including the capital, Sana’a, and much of the west coast, since 2014. Some 70% of Yemenis live under their rule. On August 15th Houthi missiles hit the port of Mokha, near Bab al-Mandab, causing damage worth some $16m and forcing it to close. In early 2022 they nearly captured oil wells in Marib, east of Sana’a, but were repelled by the Giant Brigades, a government-aligned militia trained by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Officials have invoked the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s Iran-backed regime in Syria in 2024 as a precedent for what could happen to the Houthis. He came to power after his brother, Husayn, died in battle in 2004.
But this July the government said it would resume shipments. On August 20th Abdullah al-Alimi, the government’s vice-president, said that recapturing Sana’a was “a settled matter”. Donald Trump, America’s president, has threatened the Houthis with a “major military punishment”. Mr Houthi speaks fondly of Yemen’s reputation as a “graveyard of invaders”.
Since then the Houthis have struck Marib heavily. Earlier this year tribal unrest flared in the Houthi-controlled region of Jawf, kindling hopes that the rebels’ authority is weakening.
