Social Security recipients could see a higher monthly payment next year, with a new estimate projecting a 3.8% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2027.
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However, the final adjustment will only be confirmed later this year after official inflation data is released.
The calculation is based on the average CPI-W increase during the third quarter of the year: July, August and September. While estimates are released throughout the year, inflation figures from these three months determine the final COLA.
The official 2027 adjustment is expected to be announced in October after the Labor Department releases September inflation data. The updated payments will begin with the first Social Security checks issued in 2027.
Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients are expected to receive the adjusted amount in the December 31 payment.
Social Security benefits are received not only by retirees but also by spouses, some children and people with disabilities. For many households, these monthly payments provide crucial support for expenses including rent, food, utilities and healthcare.
How much could Social Security payments increase in 2027?
The forecast from the nonpartisan advocacy group The Senior Citizens League suggests the 2027 adjustment could be larger than the 2.8% increase beneficiaries received in 2026. If the estimate holds, it would mark the biggest Social Security increase since 2022, when payments rose by 8.7% amid a period of high inflation.
Based on the current 3.8% projection, the average Social Security retirement benefit could rise by about $79 per month.
As of June, the average monthly Social Security benefit was $2,084. A 3.8% increase would bring the average payment to approximately $2,163 per month.
For beneficiaries receiving the maximum retirement benefit of $5,181 per month, the estimated adjustment would add around $197, taking the monthly payment to nearly $5,378.
The actual increase will depend on the final COLA announced by the Social Security Administration (SSA).
The annual Social Security adjustment is calculated using inflation data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
The Senior Citizens League has previously raised concerns about the impact of inflation on beneficiaries’ purchasing power. According to the group, the average Social Security payment has lost around 13.7% of its buying power since 2010 despite annual COLA increases.
A 3.8% adjustment would provide some relief to recipients, but experts note that the final increase will depend on inflation trends in the months leading up to the October announcement. Until then, beneficiaries will have to wait for the official figures from the Social Security Administration to know exactly how much their payments will change in 2027.
