In an attempt to shed the tag of a vote-splitter party and wishing to be seen as a serious political player, the Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has publicly extended a pre-poll alliance offer to the Opposition parties in Uttar Pradesh for the 2027 assembly polls, asking them to take his party on board and initiate talks immediately to prevent the BJP from securing a third consecutive term in the state.
Event Context
Speaking at a Moradabad rally on July 25, the Hyderabad MP, who has ramped up the party’s campaign in Uttar Pradesh over the last two months, emphasised the need for Opposition unity to avoid splitting anti-BJP votes.
Political observers view AIMIM’s moves as a dual strategy. On one hand, the alliance offer could be aimed at securing better seat-sharing terms and strengthening its bargaining position. On the other, the ground-level campaign suggests an independent push to consolidate Muslim votes in key pockets and emerge as a potential kingmaker in a fragmented electoral scenario.
AIMIM has been focusing on Muslim-majority assembly constituencies traditionally held by the Samajwadi Party as the state gears up for the 2027 assembly elections.
In the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, AIMIM contested 38 seats, secured around 204,000 votes (a 0.24% vote share), failed to win any seat and lost deposits in almost all constituencies. In 2022, the party expanded aggressively, contesting 94-97 seats, polling over 450,000 votes (a 0.49% vote share), but again drew a blank without winning any seats.
Though its overall numbers were small, AIMIM’s entry into Muslim-influenced areas often split anti-BJP votes and impacted Samajwadi Party candidates in close contests. In 2022, for instance, it contributed to BJP victories in seats like Kursi (where AIMIM polled over 8,500 votes against a BJP margin of just a few hundred), Bijnor, Nakur, and Sultanpur, where the party’s votes exceeded the winning margins between SP and BJP candidates. A similar, though smaller-scale, effect was seen in some 2017 constituencies, limiting the SP’s ability to convert narrow leads into wins.
Team Analysis
His party’s state president Shaukat Ali said, “In Bihar, we kept telling the Opposition parties again and again to forge an alliance and stop the BJP. We were ready for just five seats even after having a 19% Muslim population in Bihar, but they didn’t listen to us. We, however, won five seats, now they can calculate their damage. We don’t want a similar mistake by SP or the INDIA bloc in UP in 2027. We will not be responsible for any split in Muslim votes in the state.”
Ali further said, “The question of why SP strongholds include Muslim-dominated seats carries the answer in itself. This means that non-Muslims do not vote for the SP. If the Samajwadi Party claims to be a secular party, then why don’t they field Mohibullah Nadvi (Rampur MP) from Mainpuri? Why does the SP win those seats where the Muslim population is more than 50%? The Muslim MLAs of the Samajwadi Party remain silent on atrocities on community members.”
The Samajwadi Party has responded with caution. Senior SP leaders have pointed to ideological differences, indicating that any alliance decision would require careful deliberation at the highest level. There has been no official response yet from SP chief Akhilesh Yadav.
Speaking to HT on the issue, Samajwadi Party national spokesperson Abbas Haider said, “They have the right to contest, and that’s the strength of our democracy. But voters in Uttar Pradesh believe in the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav and the Samajwadi Party; they remember which parties work locally and which surface only at election time. Parties that contest selectively are often seen as vote-splitters and are not taken seriously.”
Match Outlook
Over the past fortnight, Owaisi has addressed multiple high-profile “Jan Chetna” public meetings in key western UP districts. These include a major rally in Saharanpur on July 18 and another in Moradabad on July 25. The party also held a gathering at Matera in Bahraich district on June 14, signalling its intent to expand beyond traditional pockets. The AIMIM president’s next meetings will be in Kanpur, Azamgarh and Balrampur, which are also considered SP strongholds. These meetings will start after the monsoon.
Party strategists said AIMIM is concentrating its efforts in western Uttar Pradesh, particularly in districts such as Saharanpur, Moradabad, Bijnor, and Rampur, which have substantial Muslim populations.
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According to people familiar with the matter, the party plans to field many young candidates and may contest around 200 seats in the upcoming 2027 polls.
