Medal detector: India’s chances have dipped at this year’s CWG, says Rudraneil

Medal detector: India's chances have dipped at this year's CWG, says Rudraneil

The fading importance of the Commonwealth Games, and of the idea of the “commonwealth” itself, can be seen clearly at this edition of the multisport event. It opened in Glasgow on July 23, but features only half the number of sporting disciplines (just 10, down from 19 in the last edition).

Event Context

That drop is because the 2026 Commonwealth Games were supposed to be hosted by Victoria, Australia. In 2023, Victoria withdrew, citing concerns over rising costs.

Glasgow, which hosted the event in 2014 (CWG is held every four years), offered to step in, under a few conditions: the city would use only existing infrastructure, and the roster of sporting disciplines would have to be slashed.

Team Analysis

Indeed, 28-year-old Chopra will headline the 125-strong Indian contingent, and his gritty on-field rivalry with Pakistan’s Arshad Nadeem will likely be one of the highlights of this lean edition. Meanwhile, Indian javelin has seen such exponential growth that, for the first time in CWG history, there will be three javelin throwers from India in the mix, with Yash Vir Singh, 24, and Rohit Yadav, 25, being the other two.

Match Outlook

What does this mean for India? Birmingham 2022 went as expected, with the national contingent bagging 61 medals to finish fourth among 74 nations in the final tally, behind only England, Australia and Canada.

Thirty of those medals would not be possible at this edition. Many of the sports axed are disciplines in which India tends to dominate at CWG: wrestling (we won medals in all 12 categories in 2022; six of those gold), cricket (finished second, behind Australia), badminton (topped the medals tally with six; three of those gold), hockey (the men won silver, albeit after an infamous thrashing by Australia; women won bronze), and table tennis (topped the medals tally with seven, including four gold).

Glasgow 2026 offers athletics, swimming, track cycling, weightlifting, 3×3 basketball, lawns bowls, netball, artistic gymnastics, judo and boxing.

Of these, athletics, swimming and cycling will account for the most medals. Historically, India have fared poorly in all three. This is because CWG, unlike in many other disciplines, features several world and Olympic champions in these three sports.

While swimming and cycling remain a struggle, athletics in India has seen a boom in the years since Neeraj Chopra’s gold at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021 (India’s first-ever gold in athletics at the Games).

Beyond javelin too, Indian athletics has had an unprecedented year. 26 national records have fallen already, more than in any single year in the history of the sport in the country. Many of these record-breakers will be at CWG, including 5000m runner Parul Chaudhary, the Asian Games champion whose record-setting timing of 15:04.26 this year makes her the best in Asia by far.

Chaudhary, 31, is not among the medal favourites in Glasgow, though, because the world and Olympic champions from countries such as Kenya will be in the fray. The medal-winning times at 2022 were all under 15 minutes.

The 100m sprinter Gurindervir Singh, 25, whose national record in May made him an instant star, may spring a surprise (given that the US, a top sprinting nation, is not part of the Commonwealth). The 2022 100m gold was won in 10.02 seconds, silver in 10.13, and bronze in 10.14. Gurindervir’s record stands at 10.09.

One great run, and he may do what no Indian has done since Milkha Singh in 1958: win a sprint medal at CWG.

(Email Rudraneil Sengupta on rudraneil@ gmail.com. The views expressed are personal)