FOR FIVE DAYS President Volodymyr Zelensky has struggled to contain a crisis largely of his own making. His decision on July 15th to fire the modernising defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, brought thousands of protesters to the streets. They remain there, posing ever more radical demands. What started with calls to reinstate Mr Fedorov soon became a challenge to the commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrsky (pictured), with whom Mr Fedorov had been feuding. Now some anger is being directed at Mr Zelensky himself. That has focused minds in the presidential office.
Event Context
Speaking to The Economist before his dismissal, Mr Fedorov said General Syrsky “saved” Ukraine in 2022, but was no longer the man to command. Those close to the commander-in-chief say he is “not the type…to fall down before a shot is fired”. But they also accept that the process of appointing his successor is already well advanced. Oleh Apostol, head of the country’s elite air-assault forces, appears to be in pole position. Other names include Joint Forces Commander Mykhailo Drapaty, popular among younger officers, and Andriy Biletsky, a far-right politician and commander of the Third Army Corps.
Team Analysis
A source in the presidential office has confirmed that Mr Zelensky spent several hours talking face-to-face with his ousted defence minister over the weekend. They discussed General Syrsky as well as the question of whether Mr Fedorov could return. Mr Fedorov turned down other roles when he learned of the threat to his job last week. Now he appears to be using the protests to negotiate from a position of strength. One possibility still on the table is that he could return as defence minister. Most informed sources expect a smaller offer: a portfolio overseeing military technology, perhaps as a deputy chair of the security council.
Insiders describe “intense turbulence” in Mr Zelensky’s office. On July 16th, once it had become plain that parliament would not confirm his preferred replacement for Mr Fedorov, the president drew up a list of at least two more candidates. “At noon there was one decision on the new defence minister, at 2pm another and at 6pm a third,” says a Ukrainian intelligence source. At one point the idea had been to give the defence ministry to Kyrylo Budanov, a popular former spy chief who currently heads the presidential office. It was eventually offered to the head of the domestic secret service, Yevhen Khmara, a war hero whom members of parliament would probably support. Events may yet overtake that.
Removing General Syrsky, a senior commander since the start of the war, would be a massive shock to the army’s system. Some dismiss his old-school style as butchery, underpinned by nepotism; others counter that he is wily, highly professional and much more interesting than the caricature. In 2022 he planned the defence of Kyiv and two brilliant counter-offensives around Kharkiv. In 2024 he masterminded an incursion into the Kursk region in western Russia. But his role in the defence of Bakhmut, where many officers died, and politicised decisions in subsequent battles, have alienated many.
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Mr Zelensky miscalculated in firing Mr Fedorov, a longtime and loyal ally. The former defence minister held little back in a televised press conference the day after his dismissal. Confirming a conflict with the army, he said the president had been hoodwinked by corrupt interests unhappy at his attempts to reform procurement processes. “We either close our eyes and say: Let things continue as they are,” he said. “Or we say: Enough, stop.” A senior security source suggests Mr Zelensky was shocked by such language: “They didn’t believe he would resist like that. And they didn’t expect the protest to switch to Syrsky.”
Appointing a new commander would not end Mr Zelensky’s problems, or his difficulties balancing protesters’ demands against preserving his own authority. A retreat will not settle the matter. It would fit a pattern of hesitance first shown in his response to anti-corruption protests last year. General Syrsky’s fate may be sealed. The harder question is how Mr Zelensky handles the newly empowered and potentially embittered Mr Fedorov. “If Zelensky relents and returns him to the defence role, he’ll lose real power,” says the security source. “He’s now beholden to the street. That’s his dilemma.”
