An exceptionally strong El Nino is driving weather disruptions around the globe, stoking food security fears and increasing the chances that 2026 will be the second-hottest year on record, experts say.
Here is how the climate phenomenon has been playing out around the world in the last week. The warming phase of a natural climate cycle, El Nino temporarily raises sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific, triggering changes in weather that can increase the risk of drought and flooding, and exacerbate man-made global warming. It followed Bolivia’s decision to announce a national state of emergency over the weather pattern’s effects. El Nino cycles can bring heavy rain to Latin America, and downpours have already inundated parts of Peru’s northern Tumbes and Piura regions. But for now, Sri Lanka’s state-owned electricity company has withdrawn a proposed price increase, citing El Nino-linked heavy rain that has improved hydro reservoir storage. Three: the number of times a November disruption to the polar vortex has happened since records began in the 1950s. El Nino disturbs global weather patterns, bringing heavy rain to some regions and drought to others. Both can impact harvests and production of crops for animal feed. Floods can be particularly devastating, destroying stored food and damaging the infrastructure and transportation needed to get products to market. This year’s El Nino impacts are exacerbated by the price shocks caused by the Iran war, which has raised the cost of fuel and fertiliser for farmers, and impacted household spending globally.
The world is on track for 2026 to be the second-hottest year on record, with the El Nino weather pattern turbocharging human-driven global warming, the European Union’s climate monitor said on Friday (November 6, 2026). Experts say it could help make 2027 the hottest year on record. However, the country is expected to face severe drought conditions in the first half of 2027, which officials said would force authorities to turn to more expensive — and polluting — thermal generation. Currently, about 70 percent of Sri Lanka’s electricity demand is met by renewables — mainly hydro and solar — while the remainder comes from coal and diesel. Agriculture accounts for about 8% of the Philippines’ gross domestic product and employs one in four Filipinos, according to government figures. The agriculture department said production of unmilled rice fell 18 percent in the three months to September on impacts from El Nino and the Iran war, which has spiked fuel and fertiliser prices. 20: the percentage change that 2026 equals or exceeds 2024 as the warmest year on record, according to the Copernicus monitor. 33: the number of countries that broke October heat records, according to an AFP analysis of Copernicus data. In September, the FAO said it had received just one fifth of the $202 million it requested to prepare for El Nino-linked food crisis in 22 high-risk countries.
In parts of Asia, drought linked to El Nino has raised the prospect of hydropower shortages due to hotter and drier weather.
“October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures,” said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which operates the Copernicus monitor. “An exceptionally strong El Nino is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities,” she said. Peru declared a state of emergency across much of the country on Tuesday (November 10, 2026), given the “imminent danger” posed by El Nino-linked flooding, authorities said. Authorities said more than nine million people — nearly a third of the country’s population — was at high risk of flooding and landslides. The Philippines said this week it has set aside over $980 million for an “El Nino response plan” that will “mitigate the impact of the climate risk on agriculture. In November, the country expects “below normal to way below normal rainfall,” the state weather service said on Wednesday. Scientists said this week they were observing an unprecedented early disruption that raises the risk of cold snaps and is likely linked to El Nino. All these elements can push up prices, and the impacts “can emerge well before harvests are completed,” said Maximo Torero, chief economist at the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). “Markets react to expectations of future shortages and uncertainty itself can generate volatility,” he told AFP. “For vulnerable households, even moderate food price increases can have huge consequences,” said Torero. “Poor families spend a large share of their incomes on food and therefore have limited capacity to absorb price shocks and spikes,” he added. The consequences can include reduced food consumption, poorer quality diets and “ultimately, increased food insecurity and malnutrition,” he said.
