The blame started before voting in America’s midterm elections ended and the extent of the Republicans’ drubbing was revealed. But there was another reason, the president added: “It’s a bad talking point. J.D. Vance, the vice-president, was more direct. On the day after the election, he blamed the war in Iran, and also America’s relationship with Israel, for the Republicans’ defeat.
In an interview on election day Donald Trump said that America would cut off military aid to Israel “at the end of the year”. Israel no longer needs it, he explained; the country is “thriving”.
Messrs Trump and Vance’s words were not lost on Israelis. It puts pressure on other countries, such as Britain, which has announced sanctions on Israel over the violent settler attacks on Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. But, he points out, it would also be a blow to Israel’s standing as America’s key ally. Israel’s relationship with America not only boosts its military and economic power, it gives Israel diplomatic cover as well. America frequently deploys its veto in the United Nations Security Council to block anti-Israel resolutions. If the new Congress is considering similar sanctions, Israel will be more exposed internationally.
“The fact Trump said this on the day of the midterms was a political message that Israel is currently unpopular with both parties,” says Avner Golov, a former senior director on Israel’s national-security council.
Mr Netanyahu, who lost his majority in the Knesset on October 27th, has long presented himself to Israelis as the ultimate expert on America. America’s alliance with Israel featured in a number of high-profile contests, including that of Abdul El-Sayed, the senator-elect from Michigan who fiercely criticised military aid. Other candidates took pride in not accepting donations from AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobby. The Israeli government was aware that negotiating a new package would be tricky. Growing numbers of Democrats are particularly hostile to Israel, and the Trump administration—and Republicans more widely—are loth to give money to foreigners. Talks had started in recent months about the future of aid, but Mr Trump’s election-day announcement took Israeli officials by surprise. The future of the relationship is unclear. Mr Trump has suggested that Israel will be able to continue buying American arms, on its own dime. But Israeli officials worry that a Democratic-controlled Congress will limit the kinds of weapons Israel can buy and restrict how it can use them, especially in the occupied Palestinian territories. That may be up for debate as well. But the relationship has fundamentally changed. Yet he has overseen the most drastic deterioration in his country’s standing in America in Israel’s history. A change in government in Jerusalem would help. But the alliance is becoming more brittle.
Barack Obama signed the current ten-year $3.8bn package, which is set to run out in 2028.
AIPAC itself said two weeks before the election that it would stop endorsing candidates, a tacit admission of the toxicity of its brand. In light of this, Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, told The Economist in January that he favoured gradually phasing out American aid over the next ten years. For over half a century successive American administrations have been committed to maintaining Israel’s “qualitative military edge” in the Middle East, supplying it with advanced weapons systems, years before America’s Arab allies. Israeli diplomats privately accept that their prime minister, his hardline policies and hard-right coalition are “toxic in America”.
An end to American aid would blow a $7bn hole in Israel’s finances in the next two years. Israel will owe another $10bn after 2028 for kit it has already ordered, according to the Wall Street Journal. After three years fighting multiple wars, it has been on a spending spree to refresh the IDF’s arsenal, ordering planes, helicopters and more.
