The headlines since Tuesday have naturally focused on Democratic control of Congress, but the results down ballot are as sweeping and may be more consequential in the long run. Many of America’s largest states are about to make a sharp left turn.
But even there they won races more narrowly than in any recent election. States that Republicans have dominated for years like Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio will now be under divided government. Nevada Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo’s defeat means the state’s right-to-work law is in jeopardy. Democrats’ takeover of the Wisconsin Legislature will return government union control to Madison. Minnesota is the left’s Midwest model. The GOP collapse will shrink laboratories of pro-growth policy, such as the tax cuts and school choice expansions in Iowa, Georgia, Ohio and Texas. Some GOP legislators in Georgia and Texas opposed education savings accounts, and they might work with Democratic Governors to roll them back. Don’t be surprised if Republicans work with new Democratic Governors to declare open lawsuit season on business. This is a credit to GOP governance over three decades, notably Gov. Ron DeSantis’s eight reforming years. The states are farm teams for political talent and test labs for government reform. The tragedy of Tuesday is that, owing to Mr. Trump’s second-term descent, a generation of conservative state reform is in peril and young political leaders are out of office.
Democrats are poised to control the governorships and legislatures in 22 states, up from 16. Republicans will likely have 18 trifectas, typically in smaller states, after losing five. Say sayonara to the Act 10 collective-bargaining reform and right-to-work law. Wisconsin’s top 7.65% income tax rate is already the 10th highest in the U.S. and highest in the Midwest, save for Minnesota (10.85%), and it is about to go up. A rare bright spot for the GOP this year was Florida, which is the only one of the 10 largest states where Republicans still run the government.
That will be the most governing “trifectas” Democrats have held since the early 1980s. Other than public unions, the biggest winner on Tuesday was the plaintiff bar.
This could set up Democrats for bigger gains in Congress and statehouses in 2028. Recall how Democrats complained that gerrymanders after the 2010 midterms entrenched GOP power in statehouses. Unless the GOP reverses some of this year’s state losses in 2028 or 2030, Democrats will be poised after the next census to lock in their state dominance for a decade.
Oh, and don’t rule out mid-decade redistricting in states where Democrats have seized control.
