The contest has tightened even as the US Senate race in Texas has received more attention.
The Texas governor’s race has become increasingly competitive in the final days before the US midterm elections, with Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa showing a narrow lead over Republican Governor Greg Abbott in two major polls.
Abbott, who has served as Texas governor since 2015, had led most opinion polls during the 2026 campaign. He pointed out that Abbott began 2026 with a campaign fund of around $105 million, while Hinojosa had only around $3 million to $4 million. The survey, conducted between October 27 and November 1 among 1,215 likely voters, gave Hinojosa 48% support, compared with 47% for Abbott. The poll, conducted between October 28 and November 1 among 1,678 likely voters, gave the Democratic candidate 49% support against Abbott’s 48%. Polls conducted in June and July showed him ahead of Hinojosa by around 6 to 7 percentage points. Ann Richards, who won the election in 1990, was the last Democrat to hold the office. In the 2022 gubernatorial election, Abbott defeated former US Representative Beto O’Rourke by 10.9 percentage points. The much smaller gap in the latest 2026 polls suggests that this year’s contest could be considerably closer. A Texas Southern University poll conducted between October 21 and October 25 showed Abbott leading overall. However, Hinojosa performed better among independent voters, women and adults aged 18 to 34. The final New York Times/Siena poll also showed Hinojosa ahead among women, voters aged 18 to 44, and Black, Hispanic and other non-white voters. The final New York Times/Siena poll showed Talarico leading Paxton by 50% to 43%, giving the Democrat a seven-point advantage. The AtlasIntel survey also showed Talarico ahead, with 51.3% support compared with Paxton’s 45.4%.
He has never lost a statewide election in Texas, making the current polling results particularly important for his campaign. Abbott has been a strong supporter of President Donald Trump and has introduced strict border security policies in Texas. Because the political situation has become less favourable for them, calvin Jillson, a professor at Southern Methodist University’s Dedman College of Humanities and Sciences in Dallas, said Republicans may have preferred an earlier election. Because of his association with the Republican Party and President Donald Trump’s administration, the professor said Abbott had not necessarily made a major campaign mistake but could be facing voter dissatisfaction. Because texas has not elected a Democratic governor in decades, a possible Democratic victory would be significant. Because technology companies are expanding their operations in the state, she has promised to address the issue and said ordinary Texans should not have to pay higher electricity bills. Because of concerns about household expenses, the party believes some voters who previously supported Trump and Republican candidates may now be reconsidering their choices.
However, surveys conducted in recent weeks suggest that Hinojosa has gained ground and could be challenging his position just before voting. Other recent polls have continued to show Abbott ahead. He has maintained a strong position for most of the campaign in Texas, a state that has consistently elected Republicans to statewide offices for several decades. Jillson also highlighted the difference in public recognition between the two candidates. Abbott was already widely known across Texas, while Hinojosa had limited recognition outside her state House district. The final poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College before Tuesday’s election showed Hinojosa leading Abbott by one percentage point. Another survey by AtlasIntel also showed Hinojosa ahead. These results show a close contest, although the difference between the candidates remains within a narrow margin. By mid-October, however, his advantage had fallen to just a few points. RealClearPolling subsequently classified the governor’s race as a toss-up rather than a likely Republican victory. Abbott has also maintained a strong electoral record. However, recent polling suggests that some voter groups could be moving towards Hinojosa. These results suggest that Hinojosa has found support among several important voter groups, even though Abbott continues to have support across the state. Abbott has built his campaign around keeping Texas conservative, strengthening the state’s economy and protecting it from what he describes as federal government overreach. He has also focused on the rising cost of living and household expenses, making affordability an important part of his campaign message. The Republican governor has highlighted his record during three terms in office, particularly job creation and the number of companies that have invested in Texas. Hinojosa, meanwhile, has argued that voters are unhappy with both major political parties. Hinojosa has raised concerns about the impact of large technology companies’ investments in data centres on electricity costs. The tightening governor’s race is part of a wider political shift in Texas. The state’s US Senate contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democratic state Representative James Talarico has also become increasingly competitive. However, the race has moved from being a safe Republican contest to one that election forecasters now classify as leaning Republican. Democrats are hoping to win the Texas Senate seat along with several other competitive races across the country. Their campaign is seeking to benefit from voter dissatisfaction over the rising cost of living. At a recent campaign event, Talarico described the election as a fight between “the powers that be and the powers that ought to be. He also accused powerful interests of financially supporting Paxton’s campaign. He added that these ordinary Texans were his team and the reason he had entered the Senate race.
Jillson said Abbott was surprised to find himself facing a closely fought contest in the final stretch of the campaign. She has presented herself as a candidate offering a “postpartisan” approach, which she says would focus on issues rather than party politics. Talarico said his campaign represented ordinary Texans, including teachers, nurses, farmers and ranchers, rather than powerful political and business interests.
Abbott had enjoyed a much stronger lead earlier in the campaign. Paxton, who serves as Texas attorney general, had earlier been considered a strong favourite.
One of the major issues in her campaign is the growing number of data centres being built across Texas. The issue has also become important in several other midterm election campaigns.
Republicans have made efforts in recent weeks to question Talarico’s policies and political record. President Donald Trump has also campaigned in Texas in support of Paxton.
During his campaign appearance, Trump described Paxton as someone who could be a “pain in the ass sometimes”, while still backing the Republican candidate.
These results indicate that Democrats could have an opportunity to challenge Republican control in Texas, including in a Senate contest that was previously expected to be less competitive.
